April jobs report reminds us “bull markets bottom on bad news” + Paul Tudor Jones says Bitcoin reminds him of 1970s gold…

The April jobs report is the worst ever in the history of the world with >20 million job losses. And this figure is so horrific, there is no way anyone can spin this figure as "half full" -- it is a terrible and tragic figure and shows how much Americans are suffering the consequences of a pandemic that nobody asked to happen.

But the equity markets rallied today with the S&P 500 close above 2,900 and pulling further away from the key 50% retracement level (2,794).  The S&P 500 is within striking distance of the 200D mavg 3,002. 

I don't think stocks are "ignoring" bad news -- that is simply impossible.  Every minute, every investor in the world is faced with this tragic reality--we are largely working from home and in a country that is largely shut down.  Perhaps, computers are not aware of this.

Same jobs getting hit... the 25 industries that shed 96% of the jobs in March shed 70% of the jobs in April
In the April jobs report, 70% of the jobs lost were the top 25 job losers in March (see chart below).  That is, 14mm of the 20mm losses.  We are not seeing a significant spread of the economic hit beyond the "social distance" victims.

- In April, Amusement parks shed 1 million jobs (Disney, etc) and shed only 8,000 in March.
- Local govt (education + workers) shed ~800k jobs and barely shed jobs in March.

So 2mm of the 6mm "other" jobs (non-top 25 in March) came from those two groups.

April jobs report reminds us bull markets bottom on bad news + Paul Tudor Jones says Bitcoin reminds him of 1970s gold...
Source: Fundstrat, BLS
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