The "maths" show probability of 2023 seeing >20% far higher than expected (53%). VIX key for 2023 returns, not EPS growth and 3 catalysts likely to make "opportunity" less "crisis"

Because of bludgeoning in 2022, most investors expect stocks to be "dead money" in 2023...

It would not entirely surprise anyone to say that most investors expect equity markets to "churn" in 2023. Basically, most investors believe the "crisis" environment of 2022 is spilling over into 2023. And most just see a litany of headwinds from Fed hikes to economy slowing to EPS contraction to "cash is king" to inflation "takes years to control."

  • so most investors and pundits, including many of the team at Fundstrat believe stocks will go "nowhere" in 2023.
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BASE CASE: The "maths" for what to expect in 2023, post a "negative return" year (2022)

Question: how common is a "flat" year? Our team calculated the data and it is shown below:

  • since 1950, there are 19 instances of a negative S&P 500 return year. In the following year,
  • stocks are "flat" (+/- 5%) only 11% of the time (n=2)
  • stocks are up >20% 53% of the time (n=10)
  • yup, stocks are 5X more likely to rise 20% than be flat
  • and more than half of the instances are >20% gains

So, does a "flat year" still make sense?

The video in this report is only accessible to members

As shown below, these probabilities are far higher than compared to typical years:

since 1950, based upon all 73 yearsstocks are "...
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