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Today’s CPI was a major downside read coming in at:

  • Nov CPI
  • Headline CPI +0.1% vs Street 0.3%
  • Core CPI 0.2% vs Street 0.3%
  • Details show that the downside “soft” Nov CPI repeatable
  • Last month, our analysis showed “soft” Oct CPI was repeatable, and it was
Lagged CPI finally reality of rapidly falling inflation = less pressure on Fed = YE rally
Source: Bloomberg

Look below, the trend is obvious:

  • Food is slowing 2 months in a row
  • Energy tanking, matching the roundtrip in oil, diesel and gasoline and even natural gas
  • Used cars falling -36% rate
  • Shelter slowing visibly and now matching the tanking of market-based measures of home prices and rents
  • Medical care services is falling at -40% rate and repeatable due to annual adjustment (see our other CPI reports)
  • 1M annualized core CPI now 2.4% vs 3.6% last month
  • 3M annualized core inflation is now down to 4.18% (was 5.56% last month)
  • Do we think Fed still needs to be banging away with +75bp hikes? Nope
  • 2-yr yields down 19bp to 4.17%, the lowest since Sept
  • If Fed raises +50bp in Dec 14, Fed funds will be 4.33%
  • 2Y less Fed Funds by end of this week will be BELOW ZERO
  • Market saying Fed might be DONE after December
  • Thus, we see support for YE rally
  • This is a dovish surprise and argues for a dovish change in Fed reaction function
Lagged CPI finally reality of rapidly falling inflation = less pressure on Fed = YE rally

Big picture — inflation is slowinig and falling like a rock

Look below and see the big picture?

  • inflation CPI and PPI are falling like a rock
Lagged CPI finally reality of rapidly falling inflation = less pressure on Fed = YE rally

That is because the inflation drivers are tanking and falling like a rock

  • this argues Fed has less pressure to raise
Lagged CPI finally reality of rapidly falling inflation = less pressure on Fed = YE rally

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