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Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. HOLIDAY WEEK: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, we are only publishing our COVID-19 BLAST updates on the following days:- Monday am- Tuesday am- Wed amNo More reports including no Weekly Roadmap- Thursday and Friday --> Thanksgiving STRATEGY: Thanksgiving a reminder that 2020 is a year of many black swansThis is our last update this week, during the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week.  And I want to start this by thanking all of our clients for your support in 2020.  Without your support, our firm would not exist and so on behalf of all of us at Fundstrat, thank you for letting us keep the lights on. Wave 3 seems to be definitively rolling over.  Below is the 7D change in daily COVID-19 cases, ex-CA, and as you can see, we saw a decline.  This is a meaningful turn, and the 6 states are the heart of Wave 3 (see Point #2) seem to be rolling over.  But we also caution this could all be temporary, since the holiday season involves new family gatherings, and thus, Wave 3 could be re-invigorated. Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  The last 3 weeks have seen a lot of meaningful progress on COVID-19 vaccines.  And the CDC Director Redfield even commented US citizens could be receiving the first doses in mid-Dec (see Point #3).  So markets are appropriately lauding the approval of 3 vaccines.  And as the Bloomberg article below highlights, future vaccines should be even more effective.  The article discusses inhaled vaccines under development:- these should be local (lungs, respiratory) vs systematic, and also act similarly- can be stored at lower temperatures- do not require needles (big plus) Source: Bloomberg /news/articles/2020-10-11/covid-19-inhaled-vaccines-may-be-more-effective-than-injections? sref=NVS0rEaE46 million turkeys will perish as part of the US Thanksgiving holiday.  And this fact makes me think of an illustration from the book, the Black Swan, written by Nassim Taleb. Nassim Taleb, mathematician extraordinaire, and author of the book The Black Swan (which became very widely read during the GFC) has a great illustration of a Black Swan event -- the life of a turkey.  In the 1001 days in a life of turkey chart, you can see the wellness of a turkey.- it rises steadily until the Wednesday before Thanksgiving- then, down to zero Source: Nassim TalebAt least 4 Black Swans in 2020 But his illustration of the turkey actually bears relevance in 2020 as well.  Looking at 2020 so far, it is a year of Black Swan (completely unexpected) events:- Global pandemic killing >1 million people- First ever shutdown of the global economy- Greatest ever economic contraction in the US- Fed completely abandons its playbookThese are completely unexpected events.  And as Taleb comments below, is akin to the life of a turkey. Source: Business Insider quoting Nassim TalebThe greatest market blessing in 2020 is we now realize US corporates are unkillable = P/E going to rise...I am thankful for many market events in 2020, but the most notable is that we learned US corporates, both large and small, are unkillable.  The US experienced:- worst ever economic contraction- near virtual lockdown of economy- largest surge in unemployment- near fatal crash in financial marketsYet, US companies managed liquidity, cut costs, found ways to reach customers and generally did not collapse.  This is absolutely incredible.  Seismic ripple is structurally lower equity risk premia = higher P/EAnd I think the seismic ripple, going forward, is going to be a drop in the equity risk premia, at least for the next 4-5 years.  In other words, we think P/E is going to step up dramatically.  Why?- Equity is arguably inherently less risky, if companies can survive the 2020 apocalypse- Corporate credit trades at 50X P/implied E while stocks are 18X, this should meet in the middle- Millennial investors made a fortune in stocks in 2020, during a Great Depression and their enthusiasm should not abate- Millennials will inherit $68T over next 20 year = richest ever generationSo there could a huge runway for stocks -- it doesn't mean 2021 is going to be lights out good.  But I certainly think this argues we finish 2020 very very strongly.  Hence, we see S&P 500 reaching 3,800 by year-end.  This is ~7% upside which is reasonably considering this seasonally strong period. But the VIX is also key to a YE rally, to an extent.  We believe VIX<20 would be a strong risk-on signal, as this level of VIX was only seen pre-pandemic.  The VIX measures the market's anticipated future volatility.  Hence, lower VIX means investors see lower future volatility = higher leverage.  Thus, falling VIX = more capital flowing into equities.- Hopefully, we get a VIX <20 soon, and as such, is fuel for YE rally Source: BloombergUpdated Epicenter Trifecta list -- adding 14 stocks.  +8 Energy stocksWe have updated our Trifecta Epicenter stock list.  These are the stocks which were hit the hardest by the pandemic and have the greatest operating leverage to a re-opening.  And we like the earnings upside in these stocks, because of the massive cost reset.  The stocks are based on positive views coming from the trifecta of: (i) Quant (tireless Ken), (ii) Global Portfolio Strategy (Brian Rauscher, aka Rocky) and (iii) Technicals (Rob Sluymer).  14 Additions to the Epicenter Trifecta Stock List:- Consumer Discretionary: HAS, PII- Financials: MTG- Industrials: JBHT- Energy: HP, NOV, SLB, EOG, PXD, HFC, MPC, PSX- Basic Materials: SON- Real Estate: VNO Source: Fundstrat ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click hereTickers: AAPL, AMZN, AXP, BF.B, CSCO, EBAY, GOOG, GRMN, GWW, INTC, KLAC, LEN, LOW, MNST, MSFT, MXIM, NVDA, OMC, PM, PYPL, QCOM, TSLA, XLNX Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click hereTickers: ACM, AGCO, AN, ASB, BBY, BHF, BK, BOH, BWA, CF, CFX, CPT, CRI, CSL, DAL, DOV, DRI, EMR, EOG, F, FITB, FL, FLS, FNB, GE, GM, GPC, GPS, GRMN, HAS, HFC, HIW, HLT, HOG, HP, IBKR, IEX, JBHT, JBLU, KIM, LB, LEG, LUV, LYB, MAR, MGM, MIDD, MLM, MMM, MOS, MPC, MTG, NCLH, NEU, NNN, NOV, NUE, NVT, NWL, NYCB, OC, PB, PBCT, PHM, PII, PNFP, PNR, PSX, PXD, RCL, RS, SBNY, SBUX, SIX, SLB, SNA, SON, STL, STOR, SYF, TOL, TPX, UBER, UNP, VFC, VNO, WAB, WBS, WH, WTFC, WYND, XYL Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here ADDENDUM II : Did you miss our Webinar last week? We had the big guns, including David Zion, of Zion's ResearchWe had a great line up and discussed a lot of things between now and year-end.  Here are the replay links:- Replay --> Click herePOINT 1: Wave 3 rolling over and ex-CA, cases declining.  Daily cases 162,465 +5,987 vs 7D agoThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 162,465, up +5,987 vs 7D ago.- 7D delta is lowest in 40 days- ex-CA, 7D delta is actually negative- 6 states at the heart of Wave 3 are seeing cases rollover (Point #2)- so for now, Wave 3 seems to be rolling over Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat7D delta at +5,987 is the lowest in nearly 40 days... ex-CA, daily cases are NEGATIVE vs 7D ago... Again, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It had been rising at >40,000 7D delta- the pace slowed considerably mid-October Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: Wave 3 --> WIINSU daily cases looks to be rolling over = goodWave 3 for COVID-19 is widespread, so it is not as geographically isolated as Wave 1 and 2 (see below).  But the epicenter of Wave 3, measured as case prevalence (daily cases per 1mm) is 6 states --> WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU  And as shown below, the case velocity in these areas dwarfed what was seen in Wave 1 and Wave 2.- even as cases pick up on Wave 1 (NY tristate) and Wave 2 (F-CAT) areas, the velocity is far lower Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat But looking at the county-level data in WIINSU, we can see the first signs of Wave 3 peaking.  This is highlighted the 3 largest counties in each state.  This seems to be the case in:- ND definitively peaked- SD definitively peaked- WI maybe- UT maybeSo there are signs of peak in COVID velocity.  Part of this stems from policymaker panic (soft lockdowns) and citizen panic (mask usage) and a part of this could be COVID-19 reaching the infection break point.  The latter is interesting, but with therapeutics and vaccines, natural herd immunity is arguably less pertinent. Source: Johns HopkinsBut looking at cases per 1mm residents (per capita) can be misleading in the sense that the aggregate number of cases tells a slightly different story.  As shown below, if we look at state's absolute daily cases, dominating this are Wave 2 states (Wave 2a now?) CA and TX. Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat POINT 3: Nursing homes could receive vaccines in December... WOW!!! Robert Redfield, CDC Director, was interviewed on Fox News and said a Coronavirus vaccine might be distributed across the US as soon as mid-December.  This is a big milestone, if correct. I realize many of you might view the CDC with a jaded eye, given their secondary role in this crisis.- But if Redfield is correct, this is a big deal- the most vulnerable are the elderly Source:  as reported by NY Magazine, which is quoting the Fox News interview, talked about distributing the vaccine in a hierarchical way.  It seems he wants to give it to:- nursing home residents- healthcare providers- individuals at high riskIf I was to add to this hierarchy, I think it should include:- first responders- essential workers, particularly at grocery stores Source: 

COVID-19 UPDATE: Third time is the charm --> stocks finally react properly to vaccine news. Yellen pick for Treasury Secretary = market friendly

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. HOLIDAY WEEK: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, we are only publishing our COVID-19 BLAST updates on the following days:- Monday am- Tuesday am- Wed amNo more reports- Thursday and Friday --> Thanksgiving STRATEGY: Violence of action in epicenter demonstrates investors underweightIt looks like Wave 3 is rolling over.  The 7D delta is lower on Monday compared to the past few weeks and would have been lower except for distortions from WA and OH (see Point #1).  But with the holiday season and family gatherings, this rolling over of Wave 3 might be temporary.  Keep in mind, CA is micro-Wave 3 -- the surge in that state is due to areas seeing COVID-19 that were spared in Wave 2. Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  Third time is the charm -- stocks finally react to vaccine news... The arrival of holiday season (Monday before Thanksgiving to YE) heralded solid gains in equities, as the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine news plus the Regeneron antibody approval, was a double-whammy that reversed the growing skepticism.  After the close, media reports confirmed that a potential Biden administration plans to select Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary.  No doubt, we expect markets to be happy with this choice -- in my view, Mnuchin has done a great job in this role (by the way). Janet was well regarded in her role as Fed chair and I admired many of her decisions during her tenure.  I was Chief Equity Strategist at JPMorgan at that time.  And as many are aware, Janet had a short tenure as Fed Chair, and was replaced by Powell.  The media reported that then incoming administration found her too diminutive and thus, was replaced by Powell, who is considerably taller (~5' vs ~6') Source: LPLI had a chance to meet Janet Yellen in 2019, at a charity event (thanks Barry Haimes).  And this photo is a treasured item in my celebrity sightings album.  But as you can see, Ms. Yellen is a giant in stature.  She clearly towers over her peers and myself as well Source: Tom LeeMany investors are still reluctant to stay risk-on... Despite the widespread view that investors have become overly ebullient, we have not found this in our conversations.  In fact, we heard from a few larger investors that they were getting ready to fade stocks again given how equities seem to have made little progress despite great headlines and they saw downside risk in stocks due to:- Treasury/Fed pulled away the training wheels (last week, termination of the facility) and- Was all the good news priced in as S&P 500 has not made gains despite great vaccine headlinesBut as we commented last week, the past few weeks looked like a market consolidating its gains -- a pause that refreshes, as evidenced by the 4hr RSI getting oversold (see below).  And this week, that consolidation seems to be ending.  Plus as noted yesterday, over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has risen 89% of the time from Monday (pre-Thanksgiving) to YE. Source: BloombergEpicenter stocks continue to rise, even as S&P 500 has been flat for the past few weeks... But over the past 3 days, even as the S&P 500 has been flat, there has been a dramatic outperformance by cyclical stocks, or as we refer to them, epicenter stocks.  The top 15 best performance sub-industries (of S&P 500) are shown below, based upon 3D performance:- Energy stocks have dominated the top 15, 5 of the top 5- everything else is cyclical- stating the obvious --> while S&P 500 has been flat, massive move in epicenter stocks Source: FundstratWe had suggested that the eventual rotation into epicenter stocks would be violent (harkening General Mattis comment about violence of action, see our past commentaries).  And the factors for triggering a violent move are:- Epicenter stocks are most positively impacted by vaccine --> binary event- Epicenter stocks are most negatively impacted by COVID-19 spread --> somewhat binary- Epicenter stocks are only 25% of S&P 500 markets cap vs 75% for Growth/Defensives --> mismatch- Epicenter stocks are most positively geared to re-opening --> 2021 is turning point- Epicenter stocks have strongest operating leverage, due to massive cost cutting --> Big EPS surprise in 2021Most importantly...- Epicenter stocks are UNDER-OWNED --> Epicenter was the pariah for much of 2020, for understandable reasons Source: HBOThe rally in Epicenter in past month is only baby steps --> 7,000bp of mean reversion... Given the reasons discussed above, you can see why any actual rotation into epicenter stocks would indeed be violent.  And over the past week, we had pointed out that many of our institutional investor clients saw the post-election epicenter rally as only short-lived and they planned to buy the Growth on the dip.- hence, dramatic moves as therapeutic visibility improvedAnd as the chart below highlights, the outperformance of FANG vs Epicenter in 2020 has been 7,000bp.  And if we used a mean reversion as a potential base case, this is 7,000 of outperformance of Epicenter in 2021:- in other words, if S&P 500 is up 10% in 2021- Epicenter could rise 80% ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click hereTickers: AAPL, AMZN, AXP, BF.B, CSCO, EBAY, GOOG, GRMN, GWW, INTC, KLAC, LEN, LOW, MNST, MSFT, MXIM, NVDA, OMC, PM, PYPL, QCOM, TSLA, XLNX Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click hereTickers: ACM, AGCO, AN, ASB, BBY, BHF, BK, BOH, BWA, CF, CFX, CPT, CRI, CSL, DAL, DOV, DRI, EMR, F, FITB, FL, FLS, FNB, GE, GM, GPC, GPS, GRMN, HIW, HLT, HOG, IBKR, IEX, JBLU, KIM, LB, LEG, LUV, LYB, MAR, MGM, MIDD, MLM, MMM, MOS, NCLH, NEU, NNN, NUE, NVT, NWL, NYCB, OC, PB, PBCT, PHM, PNFP, PNR, RCL, RS, SBNY, SBUX, SIX, SNA, STL, STOR, SYF, TOL, TPX, UBER, UNP, VFC, WAB, WBS, WH, WTFC, WYND, XYL Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here ADDENDUM II : Did you miss our Webinar last week? We had the big guns, including David Zion, of Zion's ResearchWe had a great line up and discussed a lot of things between now and year-end.  Here are the replay links:- Replay --> Click herePOINT 1: Still looks like Wave 3 rolling over.  Daily cases 157,024 +9,848 vs 7D agoThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 157,024, up +9,848 vs 7D ago. There were some distortions:- WA had a jump in cases as they did not report on Sunday, so Monday's data is 2-day's worth- OH had a huge jump due to backlog cases. but the state didn't specify how many are backlog casesSo yesterday was actually better than it appears Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat7D delta at 9,848 is one of the lowest in nearly 40 days... Again, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It had been rising at >40,000 7D delta- the pace slowed considerably mid-October Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: Another sign Wave 3 peaking (for now), US counties declining cases rising... It is helpful to look at county-level data (vs state-level) to see the internal spread of COVID-19.  That is, gathering data at the county-level gives us an early look at trends.  And one of the charts we used in the past is below. This chart shows the % of the US (based upon county-level data) that are showing a decline in daily cases (vs 7D ago).  Thus, a rising figure is a good thing and when COVID-19 is surging, this line is falling:- We can see the peaks in Wave 1 and Wave 2, as this line inflected and began to rise- This line is suggesting Wave 3 might have peaked, as this line is now turning upwards Source: Johns HopkinsPOINT 3: Colleges less COVID-19 than USA... the risk is students catch COVID-19 at homeThere are several stories recently about the fear that college students will spread COVID-19 as they return home for Thanksgiving.  The most recent such article is from the Washington Post below. /local/education/thanksgiving-coronavirus-campus-university-wisconsin-madison/2020/11/20/9b2c68c0-2a07-11eb-92b7-6ef17b3fe3b4_story. htmlAnd the writer here frets that students will spread COVID-19 as they go home.   /local/education/thanksgiving-coronavirus-campus-university-wisconsin-madison/2020/11/20/9b2c68c0-2a07-11eb-92b7-6ef17b3fe3b4_story. htmlThese perspectives are wrong for two obvious reasons:- first, COVID-19 spread is far lower on campus than it is in the rest of the US- second, wave 3 means COVID-19 is spreading rapidly in communities, having nothing to do with studentsIn other words, the greater risk is that Thanksgiving and Winter break cause students to catch COVID-19 and bring it back to their campus.  The most obvious way to see this is by looking at the NY Times database, which reports cases by colleges.  And our data science team, led by tireless Ken, has compiled this by various tiers of states and compare it to case data in those states.- as shown below, the college share of COVID-19 daily cases is down to 3.2% nationally- this was 15% two months agoColleges are far safer than the surrounding cities Source: Fundstrat, New York Times

COVID-19 UPDATE: Wave 3 conclusively rolling over as daily cases 147,328, +5,761 vs 7D ago. Lowest since mid-Oct. Look for seasonal strength in equities now.

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. HOLIDAY WEEK: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, we are only publishing our COVID-19 BLAST updates on the following days:- Monday am- Tuesday am- Wed amNo more reports- Thursday and Friday --> ThanksgivingSTRATEGY: Shortened trading week, but positive seasonalities kicking inConclusive.  Wave 3 rolling over... for now?  Will holiday gatherings give COVID-19 new teethLast week, we posited that it looked like Wave 3 was rolling over (see our comments from 11/17), based upon looking at the 7D delta in new daily cases.  As of Sunday, this trend seems firmly in place:- 7D delta in daily cases is now +5,761, the lowest since early November- WOW!!!! But- US reported 147,328 cases- Cases, however, are still rising (7D delta positive) and we could see 200,000 cases this week Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectHolidays = more family time = R0 should go up... Is Wave 3 over? Possibly.  And if it was, this is far faster than our baseline.  We have been using the IHME timeline, and they see infections peaking around Feb 2021.  So this is fully 12 weeks earlier. But given we are in the holiday season, involving family gatherings and travel, the risk is increased for infection and the R0 to rise.  COVID-19 remains mysterious and difficult to contain and forecast.  Stay vigilant! Market entering seasonally strong period... To me, Thanksgiving is the start of the 6 most joyful weeks in a year --> Thanksgiving to Christmas to New Year's Day.  So today is the start of the holiday period.   This also happens to be the start of a seasonally strong period for equity markets.- Since 1995, equity markets rallied 3.3% Monday pre-Thanksgiving to YE (excluding 'bearish' years, 2000-2002, 2007, 2014, 2018)- This is an 89% win-ratioSo, markets have seasonal tailwinds in place.   Source: FundstratThere is one movie I watch every Thanksgiving week.  It is Planes, Trains and Automobiles with John Candy and Steve Martin.  It is always on a network, or streamed, so it is difficult to miss.  And if you have not watched this, please give it a shot.  This movie has really grown on me over the years, and I still laugh at the same parts.   Source: Paramount Pictures ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click here Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click here Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here ADDENDUM II : Did you miss our Webinar last week? We had the big guns, including David Zion, of Zion's ResearchWe had a great line up and discussed a lot of things between now and year-end.  Here are the replay links:- Replay --> Click herePOINT 1: Yup. Cases rolling over.  Daily cases 147,328, +5,761 vs 7D ago -- lowest in 40 daysThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 147,328, up +5,761 vs 7D ago. Wave 3 is still surging.- Wave 3 looks like it is rolling over- We wondered this last week (see 11/17 commentary)- cases starting to decelerate on a rate of change basis in some places- CA cases are still surging, however Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat7D delta at 5,761 is the lowest in nearly 40 days... Again, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It had been rising at >40,000 7D delta- the pace slowed to 5,761 the lowest since mid-October Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: California cases explode, as COVID-19 engulfs CA counties spared in Wave 2Cases in California surged to new highs in the past few days, as shown below.  This is the first F-CAT state to see new highs in cases. Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectWave 3 is sweeping across counties in CA there were spared in Wave 2... In Wave 2, CA primarily saw cases surging in the southern part of the state (border counties).  But as the chart below shows, there are widespread surges in cases across the state.  And the counties with the highest cases are circled:- so CA surge is essentially seeing COVID-19 move across the states- Wave 3 in CA, is like Wave 3 across USA Source: California Open Data and FundstratBelow is a list of the top 15 CA counties with the highest cases per 1mm, both in Wave 2 and in Wave 3.  As you can see, the list has some overlap, but it is also many new counties. Source: California Open Data and FundstratPOINT 3: Thanksgiving warnings from Thanksgiving in 1918Over the weekend, one of the tweets that caught my eye was this tweet by Dana Mattioli, a writer for the WSJ.  She was posting excerpts from a USA Today article which attached headlines from Thanksgiving 1918.  As we all know, Thanksgiving 1918 was in the midst of the Wave 2 of the Spanish flu.  Source: twitter. comAnd like Americans now, Americans in 1918 weighed the tradeoffs of seeing family over Thanksgiving compared to maintaining the needed protocols to mitigate the spread of Spanish flu, in particular, masks.  In fact, the USA Today article below, has many instances of mask usage and photos of mask users.  So the article is definitely worth a read -- and given it is USA Today, it is relatively short form content.- like 2020, a vaccine had been developed by Thanksgiving 1918, so policymakers were urging Americans to keep safe until enough could be distributed /in-depth/news/nation/2020/11/21/covid-and-thanksgiving-how-we-celebrated-during-1918-flu-pandemic/6264231002/Just like today, policymakers had tough trade-offs to make, including religious freedom and economic costs.  So it seemed that restrictive measures were in place, but less so for churches and for saloons.  Take a look at some of the headlines below.- I particularly liked 'open-face sneezers' to be arrested- that is some serious shaming (apologies for making light of that) /in-depth/news/nation/2020/11/21/covid-and-thanksgiving-how-we-celebrated-during-1918-flu-pandemic/6264231002/We hope everyone is safe over the Thanksgiving holiday.  I agree it is important to see family and friends.  And for those wondering about the timeline for the Spanish flu, this was also included in the article. The timeline lines up to 2020, pretty well.  And if so, Summer 2021 is the potential end date.- Outbreak           March    1918    Feb 2020- Wave 2              Sept       1918    July 2020- Wave 3              Jan         1919    Nov 2020- Pandemic ends Summer 1919    ???  <-- Summer 2021? So Summer 2021 lines up well for the end of this pandemic? Maybe. /in-depth/news/nation/2020/11/21/covid-and-thanksgiving-how-we-celebrated-during-1918-flu-pandemic/6264231002/

COVID-19 UPDATE: FDA issues EUA for Eli Lilly's Olumiant (baricitinib) for treatment of COVID-19. Mere days after UK study. That was fast and VERY POSITIVE. Mortality shown down 71%

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. STRATEGY: Market is bi-furcating... Epicenter surges on healthcare progressWe got some very good news after the close yesterday regarding treatments for COVID-19.  The FDA issued an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) for Olumiant (baricitinib), the rheumatoid arthritis drug, to be used for the treatment of COVID-19, alongside Remdesivir.  We had written about Olumiant this past Sunday, as a Swedish/UK study showed it reduced mortality by 71%. Source: Bloomberg- Wow.  The FDA moved lightning fast- Olumiant was shown to reduce mortality by 71% and was effective for older patients Source: FDAIn just the past few weeks, we have witnessed advances in the treatment and prevention of COVID-19.  While we are not yet seeing this in reduced cases or mortality, these collectively should slow the scourge of COVID-19 and eventually stop it in its tracks (vaccine):Prevention- Vaccine candidated by Moderna and Pfizer- Vitamin D (UK govt proposal)Treatment/Cure- Olumiant- steroids- antibody cocktailsSo while COVID-19 remains a deadly disease, the medical progress is bringing considerable hope. Index is treading water, as Epicenter stocks take the lead... properly responding to improved healthcare outlookAs for markets, for the past 9 days, the S&P 500 has limped along, trading in the same range as highlighted below.  There has not been a lack of good news for one could be somewhat alarmed to see this:- market has bi-furcated, as epicenter stocks have risen strongly in the past 9 days.- the S&P 500 RSI (4-hr, 14 period) is oversold, so it is likely the S&P 500 could resume its gains Source: BloombergThe epicenter stocks, using the SPHB ETF as a proxy, have risen strongly in that same 9 day period.  As shown below, the ETF has risen 15% in that timeframe versus a nearly flat S&P 500.- in other words, the cyclicals that should respond positively to the vaccine/therapeutics are indeed rising- this most recent news on Olumiant (Eli, see above) is another positive, adding to the case for Epicenter stocks Source: BloombergBottom line.  Stay constructive.  We see P/E rising into YE, hence, S&P 500 3,800. ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click here Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click here Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here POINT 1: Daily cases 181,547, +32,824 vs 7D ago -- not as less bad as last few daysThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 181,547, up +32,824 vs 7D ago. Wave 3 is still surging.- cases starting to decelerate on a rate of change basis in some places- but jumped sizably yesterday in Texas and CA and FL... so it is like F-CAT is seeing a resurgence Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and FundstratIt is wave 2 states seeing a surge, particularly CA yesterday and FL to a lesser extent. Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and FundstratCalifornia is taking aggressive soft lockdown measures, limiting outside home activity after 10pm.  This is a pretty drastic move, but could prove to be effective.  This only applies to areas they deem purple. /california/story/2020-11-19/california-limited-stay-at-home-rules-covid-19-surgeI guess this is really designed to curb youth from congregating outside.  After all, most older Americans are likely already home, unless their employment is after hours.  - the CDC data does show that COVID-19 is now more rapidly spreading among older Americans- so not entirely sure this policy is properly focused- a snarky take is COVID-19 is a 24-hour virus /california/story/2020-11-19/california-limited-stay-at-home-rules-covid-19-surge7D delta jumped from 19,536 (the lowest in nearly 3 weeks) back to 32,824... Again, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It had been rising at >40,000 7D delta- the pace slowed to <20,000 on Wednesday, but jumped again Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: Deaths are rising and now exceed Wave 2 levels... Yesterday, we pointed out that age >60 is now the largest group of infected from COVID-19. And with this, is a higher associated risk of mortality.  Age is a big factor in the severity of COVID-19, particularly death. Source: CDC and Fundstrat  And daily deaths from COVID-19 now meaningfully exceeded the death toll seen in wave 2 as shown below.  In fact, daily deaths are only 27% below the peaks in Wave 1.- Given daily cases are like 4X wave 1- we should expect daily deaths from COVID to surge in the coming weeks- however, new treatments like Olumiant, etc also reduce the risk of mortality, so we can be less pessimistic than previously Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat US daily deaths are tracking the IHME forecast fairly closely.  As you might recall, the IHME forecast daily deaths would surge in wave 3 and nearly match the wave 1 peak.  This is expected to be reached in late January 2021.- so please, be vigilant! Source: IHMEPOINT 3: Cruise lines and Airlines making further progress to open safelyWe have talked about why these 5 industries below are the most levered to a vaccine/cure, viewing a COVID-19 cure/therapeutic/vaccine as a binary event for these stocks.  Moreover:- given stringent cost cutting taken in 2020, these companies can achieve pre-COVID levels of profitability with far lower revs- if revs recover to pre-COVID levels, levels of profit will exceed that of pre-COVIDHence, these stocks have a particularly strong upside to a binary outcome. Source: FundstratBut this is a waiting game as well.  As a vaccine/cure is still a mid-2021, these epicenter industries need to deal with viability and improving safety as they prepare to re-open their businesses, or return to a post-pandemic world. Royal Caribbean has signed up 100,000 volunteers to sail on a cruise, free of charge.  The purpose of these sailings is to test safety protocols on these simulated cruises. - But 100,000!!! - Wow, talk about pent-up demand!!! This is the reason we believe demand recovery could be shocking. American Airlines and British Airways and United Airlines are inviting some passengers to participate in a plan to take pre-flight COVID-19 test and this would lead to relaxed travel restrictions.  United process is somewhat different, but the passengers essentially test themselves 72 hours before takeoff and then again at the landing and again 3 days after arrival.  - so it is testing 3 times over 6 days. /2020/11/19/can-americans-travel-to-europe-preflight-tests-may-make-it-possible. html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom. tinyspeck. chatlyio. shareThis proactive approach makes sense.  Even after the vaccine/cure is found, we expect new safety protocols to be key to convincing customers to return.  Thus, these steps are useful to enable a full re-opening.

COVID-19 UPDATE: Hmmm... looking more like cases could rolling over in TX, IL and WI...10 reasons S&P 500 P/E expands into YE --> thus, raising YE Target to 3,800 (vs 3,525 prior).

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. _________________________________ REGISTER NOW: Exclusive Virtual Conference on Post Election Roundup and Market Strategy TODAY (11/19) at 3 PM ET... Please join us for an exclusive virtual conference as the leading strategists at FSInisght provide their insights into where the markets are headed and how to position your portfolio in a post-election world. Details and SpecificsDate: Thursday, November 19th, 2020Time: 3:00PM - 6:00PM Eastern Time Link -->  Reserve your seat via this link Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to leave us a message or email us at inquiry@fsinsight. com._________________________________ STRATEGY: Stocks are still a good risk/reward into YE, as P/E has tailwindsWe do not want to be jumping the gun but it does look more and more like COVID-19 wave 3 could be slowing.  Take a look at the chart below:- the 7D delta in daily cases has slowed markedly from >43,000 to <20,000- and daily cases in TX, IL and WI look to be rolling over (see Point #2)- is wave 3 peaking in the next few weeks?- this is way ahead of our base case of flu season lasting until mid-FebCOVID-19 is unpredictable.  So daily cases might be slowing in wave 3 states, but it could erupt in the Northeast.  So it might be more accurate to say daily cases seem to be rolling over in TX, WI, IL and leave it at that.  We wrote about El Paso and TX yesterday.  But it seems like it is more states now. Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  Given the fierce move by equities in the past few weeks, it is not entirely surprising to see stocks consolidate over the last few days.  And not surprisingly, there are more than a few who believe markets have become overly exuberant.  To an extent, we understand this, as there has been both a sizable move in markets coupled with a sizable rotation into epicenter stocks. That said, we see tailwinds for P/E into year-end, and while upside to earnings revisions is muted for now (we are done with 3Q2020 EPS), we believe risk premia can fall = P/E expansion.  Below are 10 reasons we see this: 1.  COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutics take “worst case” off table. 2.  Policymakers are pursuing soft-lockdowns, not killing recovery3.  Pent-up demand in US, look at output gap4.  China seeing massive explosive economic recovery5.  Fiscal stimulus coming6.  Investors are cautiously positioned, with little conviction7.  $4.5T cash on sidelines8.  If VIX breaks below 20, double-risk on signal9.  Santa Claus rally10. Fed dovish We see S&P 500 reaching 3,800 by year-end (vs 3.525 prior) as P/E expands by 1.4X to 19.7XWith tailwinds for P/E expansion, we see 2021 P/E rising to 19.7X from 18.3X, which would lead to S&P 500 3,800 (based on EPS of $193).  This, we are revising our YE target from 3,525 (which we raised on 8/13) and represents about 6.5% upside.- this is about the magnitude of a typical Santa Claus rally- so we are saying markets see their typical seasonal gains. Source: FundstratS&P 500 P/E of 19.7X is the same as High-yield implied P/E today... so it is not demandingFrom a valuation perspective, the target P/E of 19.7X is the same as the high-yield implied P/E (inverse of yield to worst) of 20.6X.   - in fact, it is a discount- if S&P 500 traded at 20.6X, the S&P 500 would be 3,976 Epicenter stocks rally still weaker than the post-Wave 1 rally... We have written multiple commentaries about the tailwinds for epicenter stocks, and in particular, how they are the most leveraged to both:- vaccine/therapeutics --> demand recovery- economic recovery --> operating leverage via cost cuttingThus, we see the best risk/reward in the epicenter.  And unlike earlier in 2020, there is much greater visibility and tangibility to a vaccine and cure for COVID-19.  Thus, the ability for markets to look beyond contemporaneous cases should be much higher.  As shown below, post-Wave 1, Epicenter stocks rallied 1,900bp relative to the S&P 500.  And the rally was weaker post-Wave 2.- So far, Epicenter has outperformed by 1,420bp.  - This is a fraction of the 7,000bp of YTD outperformance of Growth- Thus, we see substantial upside for epicenter stocks. Source: Fundstrat ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click here Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click here Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here POINT 1: Daily cases 160,466, +19,492 vs 7D ago -- the lowest 7D delta in two weeksThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 160,466, up +19,492 vs 7D ago. Wave 3 is still surging.- But oddly, are cases starting to decelerate on a rate of change basis?- maybe Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat7D delta at 19,492 is the lowest in nearly 3 weeks... Again, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It had been rising at >40,000 7D delta- But the pace slowed to <20,000 on Wednesday Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: If Wave 3 is peaking, early signs in WI, IL and TXYesterday, we wrote about how it looks like parts of Texas were seeing a peak in cases.  And below are the major states involved by their respective waves.  If wave 3 is peaking, we believe it is potentially starting in 3 states:- IL --> seems rolling over- TX --> we wrote yesterday about El Paso- WI --> squint... looks like it is rolling over Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratThis is the chart showing daily cases per 1mm in the 6 largest counties in Texas.  And El Paso stands out because it looks like cases are finally rolling over. Source: Johns Hopkins and FundstratAgain, looking at Illinois, it does look like this surge associated with Wave 3 could be plateauing... that is a good sign. Source: Johns Hopkins and Fundstrat And again, I might say that Wisconsin also looks like daily cases are starting to roll over... Source: Johns Hopkins and Fundstrat  POINT 3: Age 60+ is now the largest share of new cases, a bad sign for future mortalityThe CDC provides data on demographic trends in COVID-19. The data is somewhat lagged, due to reported delays and the latest update is as of 11/3/2020, or about two weeks ago.  But the extracted data, particularly around the share of cases, is still relevant.  Below shows the share of cases  (trailing 30D) based on age groups.  This is important because we know of the sizable variances in mortality risk (case fatality rate) between age groups:- Wave 1, ~35% of cases were age 60+ which explains the extremely high mortality rates- Wave 2, the plurality of cases were age 20-29- Wave 3, so far, age 60+ is now the largest share of cases at ~21%This wave is underway, but this also suggests that death rates could exceed that of Wave 2, simply because of the higher share of older Americans. source:  chart below shows the case fatality rate by age, based on data from Our World in Data.  And as shown, there is a sharp rise in mortality based on age. the US specifically, Statista has this data, collected from the CDC and also shows considerably higher mortality for older Americans.- in round numbers, if wave 2 was primarily 20-29, the mortality rate (case fatality rate) was 0.1% but age 60+, this jumps to 2.7% or higher- thus, mortality risk remains high unless the standard of the case has improved /chart/21173/hospitalization-icu-admission-and-fatality-rates-for-reported-coronavirus-cases/RANDOM: Chart shows Wave 3 surge is similar to US corn production -- someone called it cornvirusI wanted to share this tweet from @EthicalSkeptic.  This account often comments on COVID-19 with sometimes interesting facets of the pandemic.  But this tweet below caught my eye.- @ethicalskeptic points out that corn production in the US looks similar to wave 3 of COVID-19- I especially found cornvirus to be funny Source: twitter. comThe two images below make it clearer.  I have no idea why these two charts look so similar.  If you have a view, please let me know Source: twitter. com

COVID-19 UPDATE: Some early signs Wave 3 rolling over... El Paso first wave 3 city to peak? Economic data rolling over, ironically, a positive, keeping Fed dovish + pressure for stimulus.

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. _________________________________REGISTER NOW: Exclusive Virtual Conference on Post Election Roundup and Market Strategy TOMORROW (11/19) at 3 PM ET... Please join us for an exclusive virtual conference as the leading strategists at FSInisght provide their insights into where the markets are headed and how to position your portfolio in a post-election world. Details and SpecificsDate: Thursday, November 19th, 2020Time: 3:00PM - 6:00PM Eastern TimeLink -->  Click here to reserve your seatShould you have any questions, please do not hesitate to leave us a message or email us at inquiry@fsinsight. com._________________________________ STRATEGY: Economic data rolling over—ironically positive, pressure for stimulus + keeping Fed dovishEconomic data is rolling over, as the surge in COVID-19 cases, Americans are naturally pulling back and we are seeing this show up in weakening economic data.  The is not surprising at all, and have expected this as we move through wave 3.  Yesterday's report for October retail sales data shows a miss, of up 0.3% month-over-month, compared to expectations of 0.5%- this is a sizable miss, and ex-Autos, is up 0.2% vs 0.6% MoM. Source: BloombergThe most recent Chase consumer spending tracker, based on its credit card users, is showing a similar trend.  Since early October, consumer spending has cooled, as caution leads to reduced activity levels. The obvious question is why isn't this rolling over of the data negative for the epicenter trade (aka cyclical stocks).  There are a few reasons for this:- financial markets not only look at near-term weakening data, but also the outlook in 2021, which has economic tailwinds- vaccine and therapeutic progress is accelerating, arguably far more important than near-term economic data points- weakening economic data puts more pressure on Washington to do a larger fiscal package = positive- weakening economic data keeps Fed dovish = goodSo you can see, ironically, rolling over of the economic data has positive implications for financial markets, at this time.  This will not always be true.  And we saw this with the positive gains posted by Epicenter stocks yesterday (SPHB ETF as a proxy).- as shown below, after an initial big sell-off in the AM, dip buyers came in and pushed for positive gains by the end of the day Source: BloombergMore Americans also seem willing to take the vaccine.  The latest Gallup poll shows 58% of Americans will be willing to take the vaccine, up from 50% in September.  This is good.  There has been a lot of progress on a vaccine and the worst case would be Americans unwilling to take the vaccine. the meantime, COVID-19 is accelerating in wave 3.  There is some potential good news.  It looks like the 7D delta is finally rolling over.  As shown below, the 7D delta in cases came in at 26,710, the lowest level in two weeks.  In fact, El Paso, one of the worst hit cities in Wave 3 is showing signs that cases are now rolling over -- way ahead of Feb 2021.  See Point #2 for a discussion.   Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratBut cases are also rising in the Northeast US.  The MWRA, or MA Water Resources Authority, is publishing the latest wastewater analysis, and as shown, there is a huge pickup of detected COVID-19 in wastewater.  This is a sign of accelerating spread in MA. /biobot/biobotdata. htmStay vigilant please! ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click here Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click here Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here POINT 1: Daily cases 156,308, +26,710 vs 7D ago -- the lowest 7D delta in two weeksThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 156,308, up +26,710 vs 7D ago. Wave 3 is gaining momentum, so we are not really near a peak in daily cases but the 7D delta seems to be slowing.- the spread of cases across the US is widening- the fastest spread remains in the wave 3 states, in particular, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU.- but other states are seeing higher cases and dominating top 10 are essentially all previously unscathed states- we all should be cognizant that cooler weather is making spread faster, perhaps due to weaker immune systems or indoor time Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat7D delta at 26,710 is the lowest in two weeks, which means we could be at 200,000 cases in two weeksAgain, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It had been rising at >40,000 7D delta- But the pace slowed to 26,710 on TuesdayAt this pace, we could see daily cases rise to >200,000 within two weeks.  So wave 3 is clearly gaining momentum. Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  We have been looking at different ways to give the best context to Wave 3.  Up until now, Wave 3 for COVID-19 differs from Wave 1 and wave 2 for several reasons:- it is spreading across states previously unscathed in wave 1 and wave 2- it is more geographically disperse but mostly in the Mountains region- 6 states are seeing the fastest spread, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU- Unlike Wave 1 and wave 2, states caught up in wave 3 are largely laissez-faire, without any policy interventionNew:- Daily cases per 1mm for wave 1 (NY tristate) and wave 2 (F-CAT) are identical for the first time Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: Is El Paso rolling over? If so, first signs of Wave 3 peaking... As we move through wave 3, we are seeing a surge in cases across the US, including states that were engulfed in wave 1 and wave 2. Texas is standing out, because it was hard hit in Wave 2 but it looks to be set to make a new high in daily cases (see chart below):- Texas, therefore, is one of the few states that are set to do worse in Wave 3 than in the previous wave. Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectBased upon the 6 largest counties, 3 of them are at new highs... Below are the 6 largest counties in Texas and their associated daily cases per 1mm resident (7D avg).  As you can see, 3 of the 6 are still well below the prior peak. - In fact, San Antonio has hardly seen an increase- But El Paso has exploded. Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectThe situation is so serious in Texas that it has prompted the state to employ inmates to work at the morgue.  This is reminiscent of the darkest days in NYC. There are several potential reasons El Paso is particularly hard hit.  Several media stories have pointed to the labor force in El Paso is largely blue collar, thus, cannot work from home.  /2020/11/15/coronavirus-texas-el-paso-inmates-morgue-deaths/El Paso cases seem to be rolling over... The good news is that daily cases in El Paso are beginning to roll over.  Thus, we are seeing the first signs that Wave 3 could be peaking.  This would be a good development, if true:- We are still early in the flu season (ending around Feb), so we have been expecting cases to peak around then- But if El Paso is a template, we could see a Wave 3 peak earlierTime will tell. POINT 3: Dog owners (pet) have 78% greater risk of catching COVID-19... Researchers at the University of Granada and Andalusian School of Public Health in Spain have published a new study looking at the risk of catching COVID-19 under different activities.  The key takeaways are as follow:- Dog owners were 78% more likely to be infected- Taking home delivery of groceries increase risk by 94%- Working at the office raises the risk by 78%- Living with an infected raises risk by 60X, or 6,000% /news/article-8954431/Do-dogs-spread-coronavirus-Spanish-study-finds-owners-78-higher-risk-catching-it. htmlSo the most obvious and the greatest risk of getting infected is by living with someone infected.  But the risk to pet owners struck me as very curious, and is also the headline of the article in the DailyMail UK.  Researchers noted that they are not entirely sure why animal owners face greater risk.  It could be due to:- animals spreading it- other people touching dogs and spreading it- etc. But their takeaway is that owners need to take extra precautions against infection, because of this heightened risk. /news/article-8954431/Do-dogs-spread-coronavirus-Spanish-study-finds-owners-78-higher-risk-catching-it. htmlThe study involved 2,086 participants, but <5% of the participants caught COVID-19 at some point.  So this means, only 94 of the 2,086 respondents were infected.  It is not necessarily the largest sample set.

COVID-19 UPDATE: US cases still rising and hospitalizations surge, so wave 3 still strong. Cyclical rally is a glimpse of a post-COVID world

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. STRATEGY: Cyclicals are gaining favor in marketsCyclical stocks rallied strongly yesterday, a reaction to multiple positives on the healthcare front:- Moderna vaccine candidate >94% effectiveness, exceeding that of the Pfizer drug- Good news on Olumiant (see comment yesterday)And yesterday's market reaction is a glimpse of how investors will be positioned, when the world is able to vanquish COVID-19.  At the moment, no country has achieved durable herd immunity, but several have managed to contain the virus.  That is, several countries have successfully prevented the spread sufficiently, that they are essentially disease free.  The most notable examples are China, Taiwan, Australia, but many Southeast Asian nations have reduced cases to zero.  This is not the case in the Western world.  Europe is starting to see cases rollover, stemming from renewed lockdowns. As for the US, daily cases are rising at >35,000 per day (vs. 7 days ago) and at this pace, the US will see >200,000 cases before Thanksgiving.  We are watching trends carefully, particularly in wave 3 states, led by WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU, but these are only the states with the fastest case growth.  The entire US is seeing cases rise.  So this wave 3 could become horrendously bad, if cases continue to accelerate everywhere.  I want to emphasize that this is not the case at the moment.  Cases are rising in states affected worst in wave 1 and wave 2, but the amplitude is not nearly as pervasive as those prior episodes.- the chart below puts this in perspective, showing daily cases per 1mm residents (7D avg)- as you can see, while cases are rising everywhere, it is the worst in WIINSU Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratIn the meantime, the cyclical stocks seem to rise the most when we get a glimpse of the post-COVID world -- vaccine progress, etc.  I think investors need to heed this.   ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click here Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click here Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here POINT 1: Daily cases 147,084, +30,064 vs 7D ago -- on pace to hit 200,000 by mid-NovThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 147,084, up +30,064 vs 7D ago. Wave 3 is gaining momentum, so we are not really near a peak in daily cases- the spread of cases across the US is widening- the fastest spread remains in the wave 3 states, in particular, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU.- but other states are seeing higher cases and dominating top 10 are essentially all previously unscathed states- we all should be cognizant that cooler weather is making spread faster, perhaps due to weaker immune systems or indoor time Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat7D delta is now running at >35,000, which means we could be at 200,000 cases in two weeksAgain, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It is rising at >35,000 7D deltaAt this pace, we could see daily cases rise to >200,000 within two weeks.  So wave 3 is clearly gaining momentum. Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  We have been looking at different ways to give the best context to Wave 3.  Up until now, Wave 3 for COVID-19 differs from Wave 1 and wave 2 for several reasons:- it is spreading across states previously unscathed in wave 1 and wave 2- it is more geographically disperse but mostly in the Mountains region- 6 states are seeing the fastest spread, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU- Unlike Wave 1 and wave 2, states caught up in wave 3 are largely laissez-faire, without any policy interventionNew:- Daily cases per 1mm for wave 1 (NY tristate) and wave 2 (F-CAT) are identical for the first time Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: Wave 3: Hospitalizations are rising but the highest rate is in NY tristate areaDaily deaths are rising in the US, and foremost, this is a stark reminder that COVID-19 remains the same deadly disease that has killed nearly 1 million people globally.  And the fact that death rates are not as high is a good thing in the US, but deaths are still occurring.- Daily deaths are about to surpass Wave 2 peak, but not quite at Wave 1 levels- It is not a foregone conclusion that daily deaths will surpass wave 1Aggregate hospitalizations are at an all-time high.  And this is not a good omen, as this does suggest we should see a rise in mortality.  There are mitigating factors, including new treatments (see our comment yesterday on some new drugs, including Olumiant, which cuts mortality by 71%) but the fact is, rising hospitalizations is an omen of rising deaths. Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratAnd if we looked at where the total number of hospitalized (aggregate), we can see that wave 3 hospitalizations are primarily in states that did not see high levels of hospitalizations in wave 1 and wave 2.  In other words, it is in states that are essentially facing this outbreak in full force in the way they did not see during anytime in 2020.- about 1/3 of the 77,000 hospitalized in the US are in wave 3 states (see below)- and states involved in wave 1 and wave 2 are seeing much lower levels of hospitalized (TX is the exception) Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratAs for the rate that COVID-19 infected are hospitalized, we can see that the rates are actually higher in NY tristate area.  About 2% of COVID-19 confirmed cases are hospitalized in the NY tristate area,  compared to 1.3% for the wave 3 states.- both figures are relatively low, as this is about 1 in 100 patients hospitalized in wave 3 states- and 1 in 50 for NY tristate. Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratAnd at the state level, we see that NJ is the highest among the NY tristate area.  It is roughly matching Texas. Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratPOINT 3: Positivity rate is now 11.5%, and risingTo appreciate the seriousness of wave 3, we can also look at the positivity rate.  This is a measure of spread, as long as testing capacity is adequate.  And the WHO defines under 10% as a level of contained spread.- the US positivity rate is 11.5% and rising- this is above wave 2 but below the 25% levels seen in Wave 1- this is a key figure to watch Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratThe rise in positivity rates is led by wave 3 states, which are running at nearly 20%.  And wave 1 (NY tristate) and wave 2 (F-CAT) are still below 10%.  Unfortunately, the rates are rising across the US.  So the spread of the disease remains high- stay vigilant! Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat

COVID-19 UPDATE: Wut? Olumiant (baricitinib) reduces COVID-19 mortality by 71%. 7 reasons we still favor "epicenter" stocks despite record cases

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. STRATEGY: 7 reasons we still like epicenter stocks despite record casesOlumiant reduces COVID-19 mortality by an astonishing 71%... There is some very good news on COVID-19 treatments over the weekend.  Perhaps the most notable is the results of a Swedish study that found the drug, Olumiant (baricitinib, used to treat rheumatoid arthritis) was shown to reduce COVID-19 mortality by 71%, by protecting patient lungs.  This is a dramatic effectiveness, and it was shown to be effective for elderly patients.  The DailyMail article is below.  The news is important in several dimensions.  - Foremost, this looks to be a very effective treatment for those with serious complications from COVID-19- By protecting the vulnerable, this reduces the need for pursuing lockdowns.- treatments to prevent the worst symptoms improves the ability of the global economy to function smoothly /news/article-8949605/Arthritis-drug-cuts-elderly-Covid-19-deaths-two-thirds-say-researchers. htmlWhat makes this drug discovery interesting is that it was a UK AI computer, BenevolentAI, that identified and suggested this drug as an effective treatment for COVID-19.  This is the third instance AI has found useful insights into COVID-19 (see point #3). UK considering providing Vitamin D supplements to all its citizens... The other good news over the weekend is regarding the prevention of COVID-19.  The UK government is being advised to issue Vitamin D supplements to all its citizens.  This after multiple studies have shown Vitamin D potentially beneficial in preventing COVID-19 and even reducing the severity of the disease.- for all you reading this, please take heed of this advice and take Vitamin D- or get as much sunshine as possible /world/2020/nov/14/covid-uk-government-requests-guidance-on-vitamin-d-use7 reasons we still like Epicenter, despite record cases... US Governors are pursuing targeted lockdowns = good.  Tailwind for epicenter stocksCOVID-19 continues to spread across the US at a rapid pace and there is no sign (yet) for a peak in US daily cases.  In fact, it looks like the US will exceed 200,000 daily cases sometime this week. Given the massive increase in case growth, many of you have asked why we continue to double-down on the epicenter trade (aka Cyclicals).  There are a few reasons for this.  And if I had to provide the multiple factors:- Vaccine momentum dramatically strengthening = bring us closer to post-pandemic world- Treatments are seeing vast improvements, including Olumiant (above), reducing the risk of full lockdowns- US cases are surging but the related coefficient for hospitalizations (~1% of cases vs >3.3% of cases in wave 2) and deaths is lower- US governors are pursuing targeted lockdowns, not full stay at home order = good news- Europe COVID-19 cases are rolling over- $4.5T of cash on the sidelines is finally moving into stocks- China and Asia are back to normalSo you can see, we believe the risk/reward is still favorable for epicenter stocks, despite the tremendous tailwinds of the scourge of wave 3 in the US.  We also believe the consensus is still not that bullish on epicenter aka cyclicals. Last week, based on our many conversations with institutional investors, we got the sense many remain unconvinced about the epicenter stocks:- they expected cyclicals to rally for a few days, then the market would fade it severely- they see the best opportunities in FANG, Growth given the risks of a lockdown and rising COVID-19 casesSo, you can see, the positioning might also be favorable.  We do not get the sense the majority of clients want to risk a significant overweight in the epicenter.  This is understandable.  These stocks have been tough all summer and face risks if the US economy falters.  But as we have commented in the past, we see earnings upside the strongest in these names in 2021, given the operating leverage (cost cutting) plus potential topline tailwinds.- we still positive tailwinds over the next 6-9 months (see below) Source: FundstratAnd the rally in the past 14 days for epicenter is mere baby steps.  As this chart below shows, epicenter stocks could rally 70% in 2021, and that would be a simple mean reversion.  Thus, we think we are in the early days of an epicenter rally- for the latest epicenter stock list -->  Click here ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click here Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click here Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here POINT 1: Daily cases 140,761, +36,633 vs 7D ago -- on pace to hit 200,000 by mid-NovThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 140,761, up +36,633 vs 7D ago. Wave 3 is gaining momentum, so we are not really near a peak in daily cases- the spread of cases across the US is widening- the fastest spread remains in the wave 3 states, in particular, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU.- but other states are seeing higher cases and dominating top 10 are essentially all previously unscathed states- we all should be cognizant that cooler weather is making spread faster, perhaps due to weaker immune systems or indoor time Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat7D delta is now running at >35,000, which means we could be at 200,000 cases in two weeksAgain, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It is rising at >35,000 7D deltaAt this pace, we could see daily cases rise to >200,000 within two weeks.  So wave 3 is clearly gaining momentum. Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  We have been looking at different ways to give the best context to Wave 3.  Up until now, Wave 3 for COVID-19 differs from Wave 1 and wave 2 for several reasons:- it is spreading across states previously unscathed in wave 1 and wave 2- it is more geographically disperse but mostly in the Mountains region- 6 states are seeing the fastest spread, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU- Unlike Wave 1 and wave 2, states caught up in wave 3 are largely laissez-faire, without any policy interventionNew:- Daily cases per 1mm for wave 1 (NY tristate) and wave 2 (F-CAT) are identical for the first time Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: Wave 3: Deaths are rising, but remain very low in wave 1 and wave 2 citiesDaily deaths are rising in the US, and foremost, this is a stark reminder that COVID-19 remains the same deadly disease that has killed nearly 1 million people globally.  And the fact that death rates are not as high is a good thing in the US, but deaths are still occurring.- Daily deaths are about to surpass Wave 2 peak, but not quite at Wave 1 levels- It is not a foregone conclusion that daily deaths will surpass wave 1 Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratTop 15 cities are 25% of US GDP... daily deaths are down 70% to 95% or more compared to prior highs... Wave 3 of COVID-19 is seeing a record number of cases.  And while deaths are rising, the cities hit hardest in wave 1 (NY tristate) and wave 2 (F-CAT) have seen a magnitude of death far lower in this current wave. Take a look at the chart below:- NYC wave 1 deaths peaked at 66 per 1mm and is currently 0.8 per 1mm, or down 99%- Miami wave 2 deaths peaked at 16.8 per 1mm and is 1.3 per 1mm, or down 93%- Even Chicago peaked in wave 1 at 16.2 per 1mm and is currently 5.7 per 1mm, or down 65%As you can see, the top 15 cities in the US are seeing significantly much lower levels or mortality per capita. Source: Johns Hopkins and FundstratThese 15 cities represent about 25% of US GDP.  But are also the most important cities in the US, in terms of impacting media perception and federal policy.  Thus, with significantly lower levels of mortality, the need for these cities to pursue full lockdowns is much lower. In one of many examples, NY Gov Cuomo urged NYC Mayor DeBlasio to reconsider DeBlasio's plan to close all schools.  As Cuomo correctly noted, NYC public schools have a far lower positivity rate than the city overall.  So why shut down schools? some governors are taking more drastic steps.  In Michigan, the state is issuing 3-week restrictions, closing in-person classes for colleges and high schools.  And closing casinos.  Michigan is a state where compliance with existing mitigation measures were mixed, so this is a more aggressive step taken by the state. /story/news/health/2020/11/15/covid-19-restrictions-3-week-lockdown-shutdown-high-schools-colleges/6305432002/POINT 3: Olumiant (baricitinib) reduces COVID-19 mortality by 71% and works on elderly --> AI selected this drug and it really works... WUT? Artificial intelligence and big data are playing some surprising roles in COVID-19.  We have written a few previous commentaries highlighting this:- US supercomputer preferred the notion of the bradykinin hypothesis is more responsible for COVID-19 progression versus a simple cytokine storm -- so far, that is gaining further traction- Japan supercomputer suggested that ventilation is a big mitigating factor for COVID-19 exposure -- again, correctJust recently, London-based BenevolentAI, which examined thousands of existing medicines for signs they might combat COVID-19, picked baricitinib, suggesting it might protect lungs.  This proved to be validated by Swedish researchers.  This story first broke in the DailyMail (see below). /news/article-8949605/Arthritis-drug-cuts-elderly-Covid-19-deaths-two-thirds-say-researchers. htmlThe drug was picked out by London-based BenevolentAI, which examined thousands of existing medicines for signs they might combat COVID-19.  Its artificial intelligence program predicted baricitinib would ‘reduce the ability of the virus to infect lung cells’.  This was reported several weeks ago. But pan-European researchers, led by Sweden’s Karolinska Institute, reporting baricitinib slashes death rates in those admitted to hospital with the disease by two-thirds.  This is an incredible development.   In fact, perhaps the most encouraging thing is this drug is considered very effective for elderly patients. /news/article-8949605/Arthritis-drug-cuts-elderly-Covid-19-deaths-two-thirds-say-researchers. htmlAs we all know, the elderly are considered the most vulnerable.

COVID-19 UPDATE: Risk of COVID-19 hospitalization 10X greater in NJ/CT (1 in 27) than in ND/UT (1 in 250). No idea why. Updated Epicenter stock list +18 new names

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook. STRATEGY: US case surge driving soft lockdowns but epicenter stocks have other tailwindsCOVID-19 is spreading across the US at an accelerating rate and as we commented earlier this week, the US could see >200,000 cases within a few weeks.  The tally for Thursday was >148,000 (+34,000 vs 7D ago), so by Thanksgiving, daily cases should surpass 200,000.  And given flu season lasts until Feb 2021, a peak in cases is still some time away.  But the states we are watching most closely are those with the fastest case growth in Wave 3, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU.  With the exceptions of ND and SD, daily cases are still surging there. We have yet to see real panic by policymakers in these wave 3 states.  Elsewhere, we are seeing soft lockdowns, NY, even IL.  In fact, as this chart below shows, the hospitalization coefficient (or % of new cases requiring hospitalization) varies widely by state:- In ND and UT, the coefficient is 0.4%, or 1 in 250 confirmed COVID-19 cases is hospitalized- In CT and NJ, the coefficient is 2.7% and 3.1%, or 1 in 37 and 1 in 32, respectivelyThat is a massive differential.  A COVID-19 confirmed case in CT/NJ, aka NY tristate, is basically 10X more likely required to be hospitalized.  Wow. Is this due to demographics (age), co-morbidities (obesity, smoker?), or just plain bad luck?  We have no idea.  But if we look at the chart below, states at the bottom of the chart are dealing with less severe forms of COVID-19 infected.  Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and FundstratIs 200,000 cases enough to kill the epicenter trade? Not necessarilyFor the better part of the last few weeks, we have seen a fierce rally in epicenter stocks, and gasoline was added this week with the Pfizer vaccine news.  But over the past few days, the epicenter rally has run into a brick wall.- did the surge in cases finally break the market's tolerance?- was stimulus talk failure today again throwing water on Washington getting something done?- is this just profit taking?I don't know.  But we think the risk/reward is very favorable for epicenter stocks into year-end, even as COVID-19 cases are rising.  The reason for this is outlined in the graphic below.  In short:- Tangible development towards are vaccine now outweighs the 3-6 headwind of rising COVID-19 cases- Europe COVID-19 cases are indeed rolling over, another catalyst (See Point #3)- Retail investors are finally moving cash off the sidelines -- they are going to become dip buyers- VIX looks ready to fall below 20 = risk-on Source: FundstratUpdated Trifecta Epicenter stock list (*) -- 18 additions, now 78 stocks in total... We have updated our Trifecta Epicenter stock list.  These are the stocks which were hit the hardest by the pandemic and have the greatest operating leverage to a re-opening.  And we like the earnings upside in these stocks, because of the massive cost reset.  The stocks are based on positive views coming from the trifecta of: (i) Quant (tireless Ken), (ii) Global Portfolio Strategy (Brian Rauscher, aka Rocky) and (iii) Technicals (Rob Sluymer).  This updated list has 18 new stocks and ZERO deletions.  Thus, it is now comprised of 78 stocks.  The additions are:Consumer Discretionary: AN, GRMN, LB, CRI, BBYFinancials: PNFP, SBNY, NYCB, IBKRIndustrials: AGCO, IEX, PNR, UNPBasic Materials: NEUReal Estate: HIW, CPT, KIM, NNNBelow is the latest list.  Have a great weekend.  Get as much sun as possible.  And get some vitamin D!!! (*) Please note that the stocks rated OW on this list meet the requirements of our investment theme as of the publication date. We do not monitor this list day by day. A stock taken off this list means it no longer meets our investment criteria, but not necessarily that it is neutral rated or should be sold. Please consult your financial advisor to discuss your risk tolerance and other factors that characterize your unique investment profile. Source: Fundstrat ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here: - Granny Shots  -->       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios- Trifecta epicenter  --> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)- Biden vs Trump  -->   based on correlation to either candidate odds Granny Shots:Full stock list here --> Click here Trifecta Epicenter:Full stock list here --> Click here Biden White House vs. Trump White House:Full stock list here --> Click here POINT 1: Daily cases 148,559, +34,409 vs 7D ago -- on pace to hit 200,000 by mid-NovThe latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 148,559, up +34,409 vs 7D ago. Wave 3 is gaining momentum, so we are not really near a peak in daily cases- the spread of cases across the US is widening- the fastest spread remains in the wave 3 states, in particular, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU.- but other states are seeing higher cases and dominating top 10 are essentially all previously unscathed states- we all should be cognizant that cooler weather is making spread faster, perhaps due to weaker immune systems or indoor time Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat7D delta is now running at >40,000, which means we could be at 200,000 cases in two weeksAgain, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.- Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,- It is rising at >40,000 7D deltaAt this pace, we could see daily cases rise to >200,000 within two weeks.  So wave 3 is clearly gaining momentum. Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat   Source: COVID-19 Tracking and FundstratPOINT 2: Wave 3: States with the highest hospitalization rates are those hit hardest in Wave 1 and Wave 2We have been looking at different ways to give the best context to Wave 3.  Up until now, Wave 3 for COVID-19 differs from Wave 1 and wave 2 for several reasons:- it is spreading across states previously unscathed in wave 1 and wave 2- it is more geographically disperse but mostly in the Mountains region- 6 states are seeing the fastest spread, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU- Unlike Wave 1 and wave 2, states caught up in wave 3 are largely laissez-faire, without any policy interventionNew:- Daily cases per 1mm for wave 1 (NY tristate) and wave 2 (F-CAT) are identical for the first timeHospitalizations in the US reached an all-time high... US hospitalizations have reached an all-time high today.  This is not surprising, given the massive surge in daily cases.  But this differs from Europe, where cases have soared, but hospitalizations have not risen to the same extent. Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectBut the coefficient of hospitalizations is still quite low.  As shown below, the coefficient is still ~1% (1.4-1.5%), meaning for every 100 cases of COVID-19, about 1.5 are hospitalized.  This is far lower than Wave 1 (~13%) and Wave 2 (~3%). Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectBut the current coefficient for hospitalizations is very low for Wave 3 states, WIINSU, but high for those states hit in wave 1 and wave 2... Below is the incremental hospitalization rates, grouping states by their associated waves.  As shown below:- NY tristate, or wave 1 states, are seeing the highest incremental hospitalization rates- Wave 3 states, led by WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU, are below the Wave 1 states Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectIn fact, look at the individual states below.  As you can see, Wave 1 states are seeing the highest incremental hospitalization rates:- NJ and CT are among the highest incremental rates of hospitalization currently- Even TX and AZ are higher than WIINSU Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectWhat does this mean?  I am not entirely sure, but it does show that demographics and other cohorts remain a factor in who is getting hospitalized.  COVID-19 remains dangerous.  Take a look at the major counties/areas in Texas plus NY states.- Dallas is leading TX with hospitalizations- But Houston is hardly affected in this cycle Source: TX DSHS and FundstratPOINT 3: Cases are already rolling over in Europe... For the last few months, we have all watched the soaring COVID-19 case counts in Europe with alarm, as these regions surpassed the figures seen in Europe's first wave, but also surpassed the daily case figures for the US overall.  But Europe has pursued lockdowns, to different extents, and we are now starting to see daily cases rollover in Europe.- this rollover in daily cases in Europe is a positive development- Why? If Europe is containing the outbreaks here, this marks a finite peak to Europe's wave 2- This despite the flu season continuing on until FebruaryIn other words, if Europe is able to contain the outbreak in COVID-19, albeit with a blunt instrument of shutting down the economy. Source: Johns Hopkins and FundstratThe rollover in cases started with France and UK, followed by Spain and Germany, and Italy still in the process... The chart above shows that the rollover in daily cases started with France and UK, followed by Spain and Germany and Italy is still seeing a surge.  The date of the lockdowns has not followed this sequence.  As shown:- Spain instituted a regional lockdown (Madrid) on 10/1/2020, but daily cases surged for another 30 days- France started 10/30/2020 and it looks like this coincided with a peak in cases- UK (England) instituted lockdowns 11/5/2020, but daily cases had already peaked on 10/24/2020- Germany announced lockdowns 11/2/2020 and we are already seeing a peakIn other words, with the exception of Spain, the lockdowns led to an almost immediate slowdown in cases.

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