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GRANNY SHOTS: March 2024 Super Granny update. Still risk-on as still "gas in the tank."
On Friday, 3/22, we hold our monthly webinar on the Top 5 “Super” and Bottom 5 “Sleeper" ideas within our Large Cap Granny Shot and SMID Granny Shot portfolios. We also provide a Macro Update. If you have not yet registered, sign up with the webinar block below. ___________________________________UPDATING 5...
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5 reasons we expect stocks to rally post-FOMC (Wed 2pm ET). Technicals positive and hence, still "gas in the tank"
VIDEO: We see 5 reasons stocks rally post-FOMC, even if the Fed sounds cautious on the progress of inflation. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 04:19). https://vimeo. com/925149195/48f5ee3caf? share=copy The S&P 500 has been soft into the March FOMC rate decision, set to be released at 2pm...
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Still in a buy the dip regime as still "gas in the tank". Money market cash reaches record $6.1T. Of $1.2T rise in past year, only $234 billion is bank deposit flight.
VIDEO: We are still in a buy the dip regime. The fact that money market cash again rose to an all-time high is bullish for stocks. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:59). https://vimeo. com/923561070/4159fa5b1c? share=copy Equity markets are up modestly for the week (despite Thu sell-off)...
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Probabilities suggest "hot" Feb core CPI above consensus of +0.30%. Jan "hot" CPI drove a 3% sell-off. But with "gas in the tank," this is a buy the dip moment.
VIDEO: February CPI is reported on Tuesday. I think there’s a risk that it’s a hot number, but it’s probably similar to January when you wanted to buy that 3% pullback that follows a hot CPI. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:14). https://vimeo. com/921890821/f73a30615a? share=copy Feb...
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Stocks wobble to start the week: too early to say "no gas left in tank." But, this is a maturing rally at 19 weeks and +26% gains.
VIDEO: This is the first time in awhile that stocks fell on "good news" -- yields fell, and stocks down. We know there is a lot of important macro in coming days including Fed Chair Powell testimony to Congress, the Feb jobs report and Feb CPI (duration: 4:00). https://vimeo. com/919802506/ab8fd72d53?...
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Exiting Feb, S&P 500 +7% YTD. Next key decision point is Feb CPI on March 12. Beware of "residual seasonality"
VIDEO: We discuss how the key date is likely March 12, Feb CPI day. The key is the residual seasonal problem in Jan often spills into Feb Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 4:53). https://vimeo. com/918123015/5ddcb628c6? share=copy With the first two months of 2024 behind us, the S&P...
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NVDA 4Q23 EPS increase was $10.7b of S&P 500 EPS gain $34.9B (31%). AMZN another 30%. Ex-bottom 15 cos, S&P 500 EPS growth >14%
VIDEO: NVDA accounted for 31% of all profit growth in 4Q23, so a strong argument against a bubble. Inflation remains the unknown near-term. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 5:02). https://vimeo. com/916573163/51cdaa4d4c? share=copy With just a few trading days left in February, the S&P 500 is set to...
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Yesterday shows still "gas in the tank" of current rally (17 weeks now). NVDA was good EPS = rising stock. Warning sign is stocks falling on good news.
VIDEO: With NVDA 17.43% EPS behind us, the focus will shift back to macro and inflation and Fed. Generally, we see potential positive surprise for Feb CPI (lower than consensus). Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 05:29). https://vimeo. com/915706918/727ef4dd1d? share=copy The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high yesterday reaching 5,087 pushing YTD...
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GRANNY SHOTS: February 2024 Super Granny update.
Today, 2/21, we hold our webinar on the top 5 “Super Grannies” and bottom 5 “Sleeper Grannies." We also provide a Macro Update. If you have not yet registered, sign up with the webinar block below. ________________________________________________ VIDEO: For the 1H top, there are 3 things we are generally looking...
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Yesterday was unlikely the 1Q24 market top. Feels more like profit-taking as prices retrace gains of last 4 days. Proper yesterday is "sell off on good news" not a bad CPI report.
VIDEO: Yesterday's 2% selloff is an over-reaction to the hot CPI print. We also think it is a touch early to call for a top in equity markets for 1Q24. Please click below to view our macro minute (duration: 6:13). https://vimeo. com/912718090/90dc84e5d5? share=copy Tuesday's selloff in equites is the largest...