Fed Watch
Market Intelligence
Fed Watch
Market Intelligence
- Fed Watch
- Fed Watch
Post-FOMC, We See Higher Probabilities for March Cut Than Consensus
On Wednesday, January 31, the Federal Open Markets Committee announced that it would keep its target-rate range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Just as with its decisions since last July, this was in line with the market’s expectations. The Federal Reserve had made a dovish pivot at the previous FOMC meeting on...
- Fed Watch
Capitulation: Dovish Shift for Fed at December FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve once again kept rates unchanged at the December 13 FOMC meeting, leaving them at levels set on July 26, 2023 and strengthening our long-held conviction that the Fed might be done with hikes for this cycle. Washington Policy Strategist Tom Block had previously emphasized that “Chair Powell...
- Fed Watch
Another pause as FOMC responds to trajectory of inflation
The penultimate FOMC meeting of 2023 was preceded by some dovish Fedspeak in October. For example:ATLANTA FED PRESIDENT RAPHAEL BOSTIC told the American Bankers Association, “I think our policy rate is in a sufficiently restrictive position to get inflation down to 2%,” suggesting, “I actually don’t think we need to...
- Fed Watch
Fed Responds to Inflation Progress, Economic Resilience
Throughout 2023 and going into the September 20, 2023 FOMC meeting, our view has continued to be that real-time data shows that inflation is on a glide path down, that the lagging metrics used to calculate inflation indicators would come to reflect that, and that when – not if –...
- Fed Watch
Was July the Last Hike of This Rate Cycle?
The FOMC was at top of mind for investors this week, with a hike on July 26 viewed (accurately, as it turns out) as a virtual certainty. On Monday, the CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a 25bp hike (to 5.25%-5.50%) at 98.6%. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee...
- Fed Watch
A Hawkish Pause, But What Comes Next?
Ahead of FOMC day, Head of Research Tom Lee noted that many investors were viewing the market from the lens of a conventional monetary policy cycle, leading them to expect a hard landing and remain leery of stocks until at least three or four rate cuts by the Fed. Instead,...
- Fed Watch
A 25 bp Rate Hike, but Will It Be the Last One?
The members of the FOMC voted on Wednesday, May 3 announced it would raise rates by +25 bp, as most on the Street predicted. The vote was unanimous. In its previous rate hike on March 22, the Fed wrote that “the committee anticipates that some additional policy forming may be...
- Fed Watch
What Does The Fed’s November Hike Mean For Markets?
"As investors, we also always have to be aware of our innate and very human tendency to be fighting the last war. We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways." - Barton Biggs Source: Reddit The Federal Reserve held...
- Fed Watch
What Does September’s Rate Hike and Dot Plot Mean For Markets?
The FOMC met yesterday to announce their latest rate hike. As the market for Fed Funds Futures implied leading up to the meeting, the committee decided on a 75-bps hike. We wanted to provide a special update on where things stand with the Fed and markets after their third-to-last meeting...
- Fed Watch
The Smoke Clears After Jackson Hole, Jobs Report Encouraging
Hot labor market cooled moderately as employers slowed the pace of hiring, more people sought to rejoin the labor force, and pace of wage growth moderated. Deceleration came as a relief in contrast to the red-hot data characterizing much of the past two years. While the August jobs data reported...
