High Beta Merge Ideas
Data Dump
Last week, we discussed the market’s positive reaction to the deluge of negative economic data. Despite a continued murky economic outlook, risk assets performed well. This was an encouraging sign that gave us confidence that we have seen the market put in this year’s lows.
We also mentioned that this past week would be another crucial week of data, with an expected negative real GDP report, a consequential FOMC meeting, and a slate of critical tech earnings.
On Wednesday, Chairman Powell took to the podium and announced that the Fed was raising rates by 75 bps. The market reacted positively and perhaps even interpreted the FOMC press release and subsequent press conference as dovish, given the sustained rally the following day.
On Thursday, GDP came in negative for the 2nd consecutive quarter, which was unsurprising. However, like the action around rate hikes, markets took this in stride.
The other critical risk heading into the week was a slate of big tech earnings. While Facebook had its metaverse-driven woes, other large-cap names, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, all had relatively positive earnings compared to market expectations.
We think this is a good sign that implies a more robust consumer than GDP would suggest and removes t...Reports you may have missed
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Adding RON and IMX As a Different Flavor of ETH-beta and Gaming Exposure (Core Strategy Rebalance)
MARKET SHRUGS AT HOT CPI The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a hotter inflationary environment than forecasted for February. Despite the surprise in the numbers, market participants appeared largely unmoved, suggesting that the potential impact had already been factored into their calculations prior to the release. This resilience reflects a broader sentiment that a rates-driven selloff, in response to the CPI figures, is not a significant near-term risk....
RESEND: Bitcoin ETF Equilibrium Price Dynamics: ETF likely to drive significant rise in daily demand
BY POPULAR DEMAND, WE ARE RE-SENDING THIS BITCOIN PRICE IMPACT OF SPOT ETF REPORT FROM JULY 24, 2023 The Bitcoin spot ETF was finally approved. And we are seeing the surge in price of Bitcoin because of attractive supply and demand dynamics.We received multiple requests to resend this report from July 24, 2023 which looked at supply and demand dynamics if a spot ETF was approved.In short, we believe a...
FLOWS BEGET MORE FLOWS We have recently discussed the potential return of crypto being correlated with equities due to the new category of market participants entering the fold. However, price action this week suggests that inflows into the BTC ETFs may be throwing water onto that theory. It seems apparent that, at least in the near-term, that the ETF flows narrative is gaining steam, and it is likely that the...
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