Thu, August 8, 2024 | 2:45PM ET

Strong Jobs Data Sparks BTC Push to $60k, Ripple Secures a Positive Outcome vs SEC

Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Fundstrat

Crypto Market Update

Risk markets are surging this morning, seemingly catalyzed by stronger-than-expected weekly jobless claims, which have alleviated many recession-driven fears, leading to a jump in rates and the dollar. Crypto is rallying in line with broader markets, with BTC -1.40% nearly reaching $60k, SOL -1.21% continuing its outperformance now trading above $160, and ETH -0.87% up 10% to nearly $2600. There is broad participation in this rally, with notable outperformers including SUI -2.31% and TAO -2.08% , both of which had investment trusts launched by Grayscale yesterday. HNT -2.55% , Monday’s addition to our Core Strategy, is up over 20% on the day, continuing its strong performance following this past weekend’s drawdown. Additionally, TON -1.64% is receiving a boost from today’s reports of an upcoming Binance listing. Equity markets are also surging, with major indices up over 2%, led by the tech sector. Another very encouraging sign for the market is the apparent large increase in stablecoin market cap over the past 24 hours, indicating significant capital inflow into the arena.

Strong Jobs Data Sparks BTC Push to $60k, Ripple Secures a Positive Outcome vs SEC — Source: DefiLlama

Ripple Secures a Positive Outcome from Battle With SEC

In a long-running case between Ripple Labs and the SEC, District Judge Analisa Torres fined Ripple $125 million. This decision followed her previous ruling that Ripple’s direct sales of XRP to institutional clients violated federal securities laws, while programmatic sales to retail clients did not. The $125 million fine is significantly less than the $1.9 billion the SEC initially sought. Despite the SEC’s unsuccessful attempt to appeal the ruling during the case, it is likely to appeal now that the judgment is finalized. Judge Torres emphasized the potential for future violations due to Ripple’s “on demand liquidity” offerings, requiring Ripple to file a registration statement for any future securities sales. The SEC and Ripple settled charges related to CEO Brad Garlinghouse and other executives after the denial of an interlocutory appeal. Following the judgment, XRP -1.63% ’s price rallied nearly 30%. This seems to be a massive victory for Ripple given the disparity between the remedy sought by the SEC and the one determined by the judge.

Franklin Templeton Expands On-Chain MMF to Arbitrum

Franklin Templeton has launched its OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund (FOBXX) on the Ethereum Layer 2 network, Arbitrum (ARB -2.19% ), in partnership with the Arbitrum Foundation. Represented by the BENJI token and initially launched on Stellar and later on Polygon, this fund allows investors to gain exposure to U.S. government securities through Franklin Templeton’s blockchain-integrated Benji Investments platform. The launch follows an application to the Arbitrum Stable Treasury Endowment Program (STEP) in May and is aimed at further integrating traditional finance with decentralized finance (DeFi). The FOBXX fund, designed to maintain a stable $1 share price, invests primarily in government securities and has a competitive return. According to rwa.xya, FOBXX currently holds just north of 20% of the $2 billion on-chain treasury market, just BlackRock’s tokenized BUIDL fund.

Technical Analysis

Helium’s sharp gains back to the highs of its multi-month bullish base gives some optimism that an upcoming breakout could be likely in the weeks to come. The formation of a “Low, then Lower low, than Low” is often referred to in technical parlance as a “Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern”. However, these patterns are not technically confirmed as such until a breakout above the neckline occurs which on HNT -2.55% lies at $5.65. Daily closes above $5.65 and particularly weekly closes would help to add conviction of a breakout of this bullish pattern that’s been forming since March 2024. The first upside target above $5.65 lies near $7.83, but the fact that the pattern has been present over four months adds to the likelihood of a more meaningful, intermediate-term gains which should test all-time highs at $10.909. Momentum indicators like MACD are showing a crossover to its signal line this week on gains on four of the last five weeks, which is constructive and shows momentum improving meaningfully for the first time in over six months. Bottom line, HNT -2.55% looks bullish here, but will grow even more favorable once this can surpass $5.65.

Daily Important Metrics

Crypto Size

Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing

Market cap 2.09T

+$91B(4.54%)

BTC Dominance

56.16 % (0.06%)

Stablecoins

Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal

In Circulation +$115B	(0.41%)
In Exchanges +$20B	(0.22%)

BTC Metrics

A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage

# BTC Exchanges +$3.0M

(-0.19%)

Funding Rates

Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish

Aggregate	+0.4937(0.5548)
Binance	+0.9968(1.5602)
Bitfinex	+1.6858(0.9251)
Bitmex	+0.3033(0.5696)
ByBit	+0.5046(0.2851)
Deribit	-0.0660(0.0906)
Huobi	+1.0124(1.0124)
Kraken	-0.4210(0.0926)
Mean	+0.4937(0.5548)
OKex	+0.7471(1.0747)

Sentiment

Picasso Network Successfully Integrates IBC with Ethereum, Wormhole Token Goes Live

BMI : 55 (100.00%)

Futures

A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish

CME Price $59,865(4.97%)

Spot Basis +$335(0.56%)

Volume 864,299(-13.77%)

Open Interest 286,097(1.45%)

Options all exchanges

Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector

Volume 33,236(-12.52%)

Open Interest 289,269 (1.27%)

Vol. Put/Call Ratio 0.8094 (-19.83%)

OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.4909 (-0.09%)

All metrics as of 2024-08-08 16:57:16

All Funding rates are in bps

Crypto Prices

Symbol	Market Cap	Last Price	Daily Change	Year to Date	Relative to BTC YTD
BTC	$1.20T	$60,629	5.63%	43.55%
ETH	$317B	$2,636	7.77%	15.86%	-19.29%
SOL	$73B	$156	1.62%	53.55%	6.96%
DOGE	$184,159	$0.0002	4.86%	-99.79%	-99.86%

All prices as of 2024-08-09 07:00:04

Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)

Symbol	Prem. to Nav	Last Price	Daily Change	Year to Date	Relative to BTC YTD
BITW	-24.94%	$33	6.04%	40.17%	-2.36%
ETHE	0.30%	$22	9.60%	12.48%	-21.65%

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