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Crypto First Word

Crypto First Word

  • Crypto First Word
December 5, 2021

We are writing to update our clients on the events of this past weekend and highlight a few data points we will be keeping an eye on moving forward into the next couple of weeks. On Friday, December 3rd, over $2 billion in long positions across...

Bitcoin has a shot at $100,000 in ‘everything rally’ that sweeps up stock market, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee predicts
  • Crypto First Word
September 24, 2021

China Bans Crypto... Again

Crypto markets sell-off following regulatory news out of China, as the PBoC released a document laying out its intentions for stricter regulation and enforcement measures on crypto.This is not the first time China has “banned” crypto (and probably won’t be the last). Historical price movement post-ban is mixed.This news might...

  • Crypto First Word
August 9, 2021

Bitcoin crosses above 200D, invoking Rule #3 --> Buy Bitcoin above its 200D

As shown below, Bitcoin's forward performance is far stronger when it is trading above its 200D moving average: >200D, 6M forward return    +193% <200D, 6M forward return       +10% You get the picture, Bitcoin is a network effect/network value asset, and also apparently aided by price momentum. _STRATEGY:...

  • Crypto First Word
May 31, 2021

Bitcoin rises despite "bad news" --> further evidence Bitcoin bottom is in

But unlike past weekends, Bitcoin barely responded to these headlines (see below).  In fact, Bitcoin is indeed flat/rising over the long weekend: - at 4pm ET Friday (5/28), Bitcoin was ~$34,900 - at 3:50pm ET Sunday (5/30) when FT story "broke" Bitcoin was ~$36,000 - as of this writing at...

intraday
  • Crypto First Word
May 28, 2021

Unpopular opinion --> We expect stable/rising prices. Setup for Bitcoin and crypto is "less bad" into the weekend = good.

_PS: HOW DOES BITCOIN SPILL OVER INTO EQUITIES?_ These crypto sell-offs have potential impacts on equity and broader markets, for several reasons: - many US crypto holders also own equities (ala Robinhood) - Bitcoin futures are traded by macro funds, hence, drawdowns/limit down moves impact macro markets - Bitcoin has...

intraday
  • Crypto First Word
June 11, 2020

The Ten Rules of Bitcoin Investing: Rule No. 5

THE TEN RULES OF BITCOIN INVESTING: RULE NO. 5 THE RULE OF ‘THE TEN BEST DAYS.’ If you have read the first four parts of this series, you’d know that: 1 the U.S. is going to be very important in the continued development of Bitcoin and crypto currencies; 2 the...

  • Crypto First Word
May 29, 2020

The Ten Rules of Bitcoin Investing: No. 4

THE TEN RULES OF BITCOIN INVESTING: RULE NO. 4 BITCOIN PERFORMS BEST WHEN S&P 500 INDEX IS PERFORMING STRONGLY If you have read the first three parts of this series, you’d know that the U.S. is going to be very important in the continued development of Bitcoin and crypto currencies;...

  • Crypto First Word
May 14, 2020

The Ten Rules of Bitcoin Investing: No. 3

(FSInsight. com’s head of research Tom Lee revealed the first five of his ten rules of Bitcoin investing on April 23, 2020 and gave an updated outlook for the remainder of the year. The final five of ten rules will be published later this year. The webinar is available on...

The Ten Rules of Bitcoin Investing: Rule No. 2

THE TEN RULES OF BITCOIN INVESTING: RULE NO. 2 RULE #2: CONSENSUS MOSTLY RIGHT, THUS BITCOIN MISERY INDEX The Bitcoin Misery Index (BMI) is a diffusion index, a proprietary tool that we invented for our clients interested in cryptocurrency investing. In essence, the BMI is a proxy for how investors...

The Ten Rules of Bitcoin Investing: Rule No. 1

THE TEN RULES OF BITCOIN INVESTING Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin (BTC) have been around for over a decade, a time period in which they are solidly up. However, as an asset class the believers in it are few, to go by the minuscule amount of money invested, 0.1% of the total,...