Crypto Daily Report – October 3

Oct 3, 2022
Most Important Daily
Data and News for Digital Assets

Crypto Daily Report

October 3, 2022
THIS MESSAGE IS SENT SOLELY TO MEMBERS OF FS INSIGHT
Tickers on this report: AAVE, BTC, DXY, ETH, MKR, QQQ, RUNE, SPX, UNI, VIX
Market Update
Crypto Daily Report – October 3

Sean Farrell

Head of Digital Asset Strategy

  • Markets seem to be wishing another Uptober into existence, as crypto and equities are starting the month on a bullish note. At the time of writing, the $SPX (+2.2%) and $QQQ (+1.8%) are up substantially after finding new YTD lows last week. Meanwhile, the US 10Y is down to under 3.7%, a sizeable pullback from its rise above 4.0% just last week. The $VIX is down nearly 5%, while the $DXY is down 0.2% on the back of Prime Minister Truss' revised tax cut plan, which is giving the British Pound a slight boost compared to the dollar. The global crypto market cap is up 2.1% as $BTC (+1.7%) looks to challenge the $20k level, and $ETH (+2.2%) is doing its best to stay above $1.3k. Several prominent DeFi names are leading the market in the morning as blue chips such as $MKR, and $UNI are each up over 5%, and $AAVE and $RUNE trail close behind, posting 24-hour gains of approximately 3.0%. 
  • Centralized stablecoin issuer Tether, who currently commands a plurality of the stablecoin market share, took dramatic steps to reduce its exposure to commercial paper. Tether CTO Paulo Ardoino took to Twitter to reveal that US treasury bills now account for 58.1% of Tether's $68 billion of reserves, up from approximately 43.5% as of June 2022. More importantly, as of September 30th, its exposure to commercial paper amounts to a rounding error, down to less than $50 million from nearly $20 billion five months ago. This is consistent with Tether's commitment earlier this year to reduce its exposure to commercial paper. Tether has received substantial criticism for its lack of transparency around the specific commercial paper it was invested in. However, the shift from commercial paper to treasuries likely has more to do with the risk-adjusted yield short-duration treasuries provide for centralized stablecoin providers in this higher interest rate environment. For example, $68.0 billion of reserves lent at a 3.0% annualized rate (the lower bound of the target fed funds rate range) equates to an approximate $2 billion revenue run rate. 
  • A pair of infrastructure issues plagued the crypto ecosystem over the weekend. The first occurred when a Solana validator ran a duplicate validator instance, meaning that they produced the same block twice, which confused the rest of the network leading to approximately 6 hours of downtime and causing the network to fork. Depending on how it is measured, this was the 5th instance this calendar year of a disruption to the Solana Mainnet. While downtime and node centralization are risks that we have highlighted in our notes on Solana (a network we are generally bullish on), it is worth noting that this network disruption was somewhat dissimilar from previous ones as it was caused by a bug in consensus as opposed to a spam attack. See our most recent weekly note for more color on the recent resurgence of the NFT market on Solana, a driving factor behind its recent outperformance. The other infrastructure-related issue came from Coinbase, which encountered a technical problem on Sunday that prevented users from making payments or withdrawals involving US bank accounts. The case was resolved later the same day, but the company has yet to state the specific issue leading to the disruption in service. 
Daily Technical Strategy
Crypto Daily Report – October 3

Mark L. Newton, CMT

Head of Technical Strategy

Cryptocurrencies have started to show some real positive divergence vs. Equities on weakness over the last couple days, and this coupled with a notable drawdown in volatility compared to traditional levels is providing some reason for optimism for traders. As daily $BTCUSD charts show below, prices remain in range-bound consolidation and despite Monday's bounce coinciding with the lift in Equities, more technical progress needs to happen to have real faith that a meaningful low is in. Movement back over $20,171 would allow for upside follow-through up to $21,000, which is the first real area of upside resistance to any gains. This level equates to the current downtrend from August peak while $21,684 represents a 50% retracement of the decline over the last couple months. Unfortunately with lack of meaningful trend change, one must wait for evidence of technical progress to have conviction of a real bottom. Any decline under $18,461 would likely lead to a final drawdown to near $16,500, which would allow for a better risk/reward area for intermediate-term long positioning. Bottom line, intermediate-term lows look close, and could potentially be in place already, but some evidence of technical progress on the upside will be necessary to offer more confidence in this regard.

Daily Important Metrics

Crypto Size

Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing

Market Cap $931B +$1.4B (+0.15%)

BTC Dominance   39.63% (+0.10%)

Stable Coins

Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal

In Circulation $68B (+0.00%)

In Exchanges $17B (--0.22%)

BTC Metrics

A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage

# BTC in Exchanges 2.4M (-0.07%)

Funding Rates

Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish

Aggregate 0.0017% (-0.0019)

Binance -0.0098% (-0.0144)

Bitfinex -0.0000% (-0.0000)

Bitmex -0.0098% (-0.0144)

ByBit 0.0067% (-0.0032)

Deribit -0.0013% (-0.0006)

FTX -0.0008% (0.0024)

Huobi 0.0056% (0.0007)

Kraken 0.0005% (-0.0068)

Mean 0.0017% (-0.0019)

OKex -0.0015% (-0.0074)

SENTIMENT

Crypto Daily Report – October 3

BMI: 55 (0.00%)

Futures All Exchanges

A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish

CME BTC Price $19,170 (-1.31%)

Spot Basis   $-29.53 (-0.15%)

Volume 1.0M (51%)

Open Interest  480,111 (0.93%)

Options All Exchanges

Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector

Volume 12,379 (87%)

Open Interest 225,534 (1.99%)

Volume Put/Call Ratio 1.04 (25%)

Open Interest Put/Call Ratio 0.5289 (1.64%)

All metrics as of October 3, 2022 11:25 AM
Crypto Prices
SymbolMarket CapLast PriceDaily ChangeYear to DateRelative to BTC YTD
BTC$374B$19,5231.71%-58%
ETH$163B$1,3252.18%-64%-6.14%
ADA$15B$0.42690.40%-68%-9.53%
SOL$12B$33.041.60%-81%-23%
DOGE$8.0B$0.06030.54%-65%-6.54%
DOT$7.1B$6.351.75%-77%-18%
MATIC$7.0B$0.80133.32%-68%-9.91%
LINK$3.6B$7.28-0.40%-63%-4.95%
NEAR$2.8B$3.53-0.10%-76%-18%
HNT$636M$4.991.49%-87%-28%
FTM$567M$0.22270.44%-90%-32%
Our Deep Research Projects
AVAX$5.0B$17.031.44%-84%-26%
IOTA$775M$0.2787-0.53%-80%-21%
ZIL$421M$0.03152.17%-59%-0.21%
AMP$208M$0.00491.44%-90%-32%
ZEN$181M$14.062.46%-77%-19%

All prices as of October 3, 2022 1:34 PM

Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
SymbolPremium to NavLast PriceDaily ChangeYear to DateRelative to BTC YTD
GBTC-29%$11.410.71%-67%-8.37%
BITW-41%$10.420.19%-73%-14%
ETHE-25%$9.120.55%-72%-14%
QBTC-7.84%$19.131.81%-69%-10%
BTCC-0.23%$3.661.67%-58%0.77%

All prices as of October 3, 2022 7:01 AM

Stocks
SymbolMarket CapLast PriceDaily ChangeYear to dateRelative to BTC YTD
PYPL$216B$87.071.16%-54%4.49%
SQ$76B$55.661.22%-66%-7.22%
COIN$65B$65.912.20%-74%-16%
SBNY$18B$1552.54%-52%6.18%
HOOD$15B$9.98-1.19%-44%15%
MSTR$6.1B$2235.17%-59%-0.69%
SI$4.2B$76.050.93%-49%9.63%
MARA$3.5B$10.932.05%-67%-8.42%
RIOT$2.7B$7.111.43%-68%-9.84%
MOGO$223M$0.9151-0.53%-73%-15%

All prices as of October 3, 2022 1:51 PM

News
QUICK BITS
U.S. Treasury bills now make up more than half of Tether’s reserves
The Block
Tether's CTO shared the update in a Tweet on Monday, adding that its commercial paper holdings are now below $50 million. The post U.S. Treasury bills now make up more than half of Tether’s reserves appeared first on The B...
Grayscale Takes Over Key Role for Bitcoin Trust, Other Products From Genesis
CoinDesk
Grayscale Securities, a new broker-deal division, will handle selling shares of the company’s crypto trust products, taking over a function previously provided by fellow Digital Currency Group subsidiary Genesis Global Trading.
Coinbase Suffers ‘Major Outage’ for Customers With US Bank Accounts
Decrypt.co
The exchange has identified the problem and is working to address the issue.
Indian crypto exchange WazirX confirms layoffs: CoinDesk
The Block
The layoffs come nearly two months after Indian authorities began investigating WazirX for alleged money laundering.  The post Indian crypto exchange WazirX confirms layoffs: CoinDesk appeared first on The Block.
DOSE OF DEFI
Citi Says Decentralized Crypto Exchanges Are Winning Market Share From Centralized Peers
CoinDesk
Increased crypto regulation could drive users to decentralized platforms, the bank said.
SushiSwap Community Votes in 'Head Chef' to Oversee Decentralized Crypto Exchange
CoinDesk
New CEO Jared Grey said he plans to work out the kinks associated with Sushiswap’s internal structure that may have prompted departures in the past.
CRYPTO INFRASTRUCTURE
Binance signs agreement with Kazakhstan and plans regional hub
The Block
Binance and Kazakhstan have formalized their shared interest in developing and regulating the national cryptoasset market. The post Binance signs agreement with Kazakhstan and plans regional hub appeared first on The Block...
REGULATION
Kim Kardashian pays $1.3mn to settle crypto charges
Financial Times
Celebrity failed to disclose payment for EthereumMax post on Instagram
FUNDRAISING AND M&A
Paradigm leads $11.8M funding for Web3 wallet security provider Blowfish
BtcEthereum
Blowfish is a firewall technology startup that’s includes engineers from Meta, MakerDAO and other platforms. Web3 wallet security provider Blowfish has raised $11.8 million from several venture funds and other top crypto investors. Paradigm led the ...
Arthur Cheong’s DeFiance Capital raising $100 million to invest in liquid tokens
The Block
Arthur Cheong's DeFiance Capital plans to raise a $100 million fund to invest in liquid tokens, sources tell The Block. The post Arthur Cheong’s DeFiance Capital raising $100 million to invest in liquid tokens appeared fir...
NYDIG raises $720M as Bitcoin balance hits all-time high
Coin Telegraph
An SEC filing reveals NYDIG’s intent to raise $720 million while a recent press release shows the company’s commitment to HODLing.
Report: Uniswap Seeks to Raise $200 Million in Fresh Capital at $1 Billion Valuation
Bitcoin.com
The largest decentralized exchange (dex) platform by global trade volume, Uniswap, is looking to raise between $100 and $200 million, according to a report citing people familiar with the company. The funding round is currently in a nascent stage as ...
Crypto checking account provider Juno raises $18 million and launches token
The Block
Juno has launched a native token for its tokenized loyalty program and is airdropping the token to existing users today. The post Crypto checking account provider Juno raises $18 million and launches token appeared first o...
Paradigm leads crypto firewall provider Blowfish’s $11.8 million raise
The Block
Web3 firewall provider Blowfish emerges from stealth with $11.8 million in funding and a partnership with Solana wallet Phantom.  The post Paradigm leads crypto firewall provider Blowfish’s $11.8 million raise appeared fir...
HIRING
Bitcoin Investment Firm NYDIG's CEO Robert Gutmann Departs
CoinDesk
Bitcoin investment company NYDIG has promoted executives Tejas Shah and Nate Conrad to be its new CEO and president respectively.
WEB 3.0
Flashbots now accounts for 39% of Ethereum blocks as censorship concerns rise
The Block
Despite some Ethereum users' anger that Flashbots is censoring transactions, its usage only continues to grow. The post Flashbots now accounts for 39% of Ethereum blocks as censorship concerns rise appeared first on The Bl...
HACKS, EXPLOITS, AND SCAMS
Alex Mashinsky Withdrew $10M From Сelsius Before Freezing Customer Accounts: Report
Decrypt.co
Before freezing user accounts and filing for bankruptcy, new reports indicate that the former Celsius CEO withdrew $10 million from the firm.
Transit Swap DeFi Hacker Returns $16M in Stolen Ethereum, Binance Coin
Decrypt.co
After raking in roughly $23 million via an attack on Transit Swap, the attacker has reportedly returned roughly 70% of the money.
DOJ objects to Celsius plans to reopen withdrawals and sell stablecoins
Coin Telegraph
The objection is seeking a deferral on Celsius motions until the independent examiner report on the company is filed over the next couple of months.

Reports you may have missed

Happy Halving Day to all. It has been another volatile 24 hours for crypto markets, with war-related headlines sending risk assets lower overnight. BTC -1.91%  briefly dipped below the $60k mark but has since recouped all its losses and is now trading above $64k. ETH -1.76%  followed BTC's initial drop, trading below $2900 last night, but it has now rebounded to above $3000. SOL -2.06%  has shown remarkable resilience amid the turmoil, now...

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 1/1

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You are reading the last free article for this month.

Already have an account? Sign In