Most Important Daily Data and News for Digital Assets |
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Crypto Daily Report | October 3, 2022 |
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THIS MESSAGE IS SENT SOLELY TO MEMBERS OF FS INSIGHT |
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Tickers on this report: AAVE, BTC, DXY, ETH, MKR, QQQ, RUNE, SPX, UNI, VIX |
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- Markets seem to be wishing another Uptober into existence, as crypto and equities are starting the month on a bullish note. At the time of writing, the $SPX (+2.2%) and $QQQ (+1.8%) are up substantially after finding new YTD lows last week. Meanwhile, the US 10Y is down to under 3.7%, a sizeable pullback from its rise above 4.0% just last week. The $VIX is down nearly 5%, while the $DXY is down 0.2% on the back of Prime Minister Truss' revised tax cut plan, which is giving the British Pound a slight boost compared to the dollar. The global crypto market cap is up 2.1% as $BTC (+1.7%) looks to challenge the $20k level, and $ETH (+2.2%) is doing its best to stay above $1.3k. Several prominent DeFi names are leading the market in the morning as blue chips such as $MKR, and $UNI are each up over 5%, and $AAVE and $RUNE trail close behind, posting 24-hour gains of approximately 3.0%.
- Centralized stablecoin issuer Tether, who currently commands a plurality of the stablecoin market share, took dramatic steps to reduce its exposure to commercial paper. Tether CTO Paulo Ardoino took to Twitter to reveal that US treasury bills now account for 58.1% of Tether's $68 billion of reserves, up from approximately 43.5% as of June 2022. More importantly, as of September 30th, its exposure to commercial paper amounts to a rounding error, down to less than $50 million from nearly $20 billion five months ago. This is consistent with Tether's commitment earlier this year to reduce its exposure to commercial paper. Tether has received substantial criticism for its lack of transparency around the specific commercial paper it was invested in. However, the shift from commercial paper to treasuries likely has more to do with the risk-adjusted yield short-duration treasuries provide for centralized stablecoin providers in this higher interest rate environment. For example, $68.0 billion of reserves lent at a 3.0% annualized rate (the lower bound of the target fed funds rate range) equates to an approximate $2 billion revenue run rate.
- A pair of infrastructure issues plagued the crypto ecosystem over the weekend. The first occurred when a Solana validator ran a duplicate validator instance, meaning that they produced the same block twice, which confused the rest of the network leading to approximately 6 hours of downtime and causing the network to fork. Depending on how it is measured, this was the 5th instance this calendar year of a disruption to the Solana Mainnet. While downtime and node centralization are risks that we have highlighted in our notes on Solana (a network we are generally bullish on), it is worth noting that this network disruption was somewhat dissimilar from previous ones as it was caused by a bug in consensus as opposed to a spam attack. See our most recent weekly note for more color on the recent resurgence of the NFT market on Solana, a driving factor behind its recent outperformance. The other infrastructure-related issue came from Coinbase, which encountered a technical problem on Sunday that prevented users from making payments or withdrawals involving US bank accounts. The case was resolved later the same day, but the company has yet to state the specific issue leading to the disruption in service.
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Cryptocurrencies have started to show some real positive divergence vs. Equities on weakness over the last couple days, and this coupled with a notable drawdown in volatility compared to traditional levels is providing some reason for optimism for traders. As daily $BTCUSD charts show below, prices remain in range-bound consolidation and despite Monday's bounce coinciding with the lift in Equities, more technical progress needs to happen to have real faith that a meaningful low is in. Movement back over $20,171 would allow for upside follow-through up to $21,000, which is the first real area of upside resistance to any gains. This level equates to the current downtrend from August peak while $21,684 represents a 50% retracement of the decline over the last couple months. Unfortunately with lack of meaningful trend change, one must wait for evidence of technical progress to have conviction of a real bottom. Any decline under $18,461 would likely lead to a final drawdown to near $16,500, which would allow for a better risk/reward area for intermediate-term long positioning. Bottom line, intermediate-term lows look close, and could potentially be in place already, but some evidence of technical progress on the upside will be necessary to offer more confidence in this regard. | |
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Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market Cap $931B +$1.4B (+0.15%) BTC Dominance 39.63% (+0.10%) | Stable Coins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation $68B (+0.00%) In Exchanges $17B (--0.22%) | BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC in Exchanges 2.4M (-0.07%) | Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate 0.0017% (-0.0019) Binance -0.0098% (-0.0144) Bitfinex -0.0000% (-0.0000) Bitmex -0.0098% (-0.0144) ByBit 0.0067% (-0.0032) Deribit -0.0013% (-0.0006) FTX -0.0008% (0.0024) Huobi 0.0056% (0.0007) Kraken 0.0005% (-0.0068) Mean 0.0017% (-0.0019) OKex -0.0015% (-0.0074) |
| SENTIMENT | BMI: 55 (0.00%) |
| Futures All Exchanges A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME BTC Price $19,170 (-1.31%) Spot Basis $-29.53 (-0.15%) Volume 1.0M (51%) Open Interest 480,111 (0.93%) | Options All Exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 12,379 (87%) Open Interest 225,534 (1.99%) Volume Put/Call Ratio 1.04 (25%) Open Interest Put/Call Ratio 0.5289 (1.64%) |
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| All metrics as of October 3, 2022 11:25 AM |
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Symbol | Market Cap | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
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BTC | $374B | $19,523 | 1.71% | -58% | | ETH | $163B | $1,325 | 2.18% | -64% | -6.14% | ADA | $15B | $0.4269 | 0.40% | -68% | -9.53% | SOL | $12B | $33.04 | 1.60% | -81% | -23% | DOGE | $8.0B | $0.0603 | 0.54% | -65% | -6.54% | DOT | $7.1B | $6.35 | 1.75% | -77% | -18% | MATIC | $7.0B | $0.8013 | 3.32% | -68% | -9.91% | LINK | $3.6B | $7.28 | -0.40% | -63% | -4.95% | NEAR | $2.8B | $3.53 | -0.10% | -76% | -18% | HNT | $636M | $4.99 | 1.49% | -87% | -28% | FTM | $567M | $0.2227 | 0.44% | -90% | -32% | Our Deep Research Projects | AVAX | $5.0B | $17.03 | 1.44% | -84% | -26% | IOTA | $775M | $0.2787 | -0.53% | -80% | -21% | ZIL | $421M | $0.0315 | 2.17% | -59% | -0.21% | AMP | $208M | $0.0049 | 1.44% | -90% | -32% | ZEN | $181M | $14.06 | 2.46% | -77% | -19% |
All prices as of October 3, 2022 1:34 PM |
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Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) | |
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Symbol | Premium to Nav | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
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GBTC | -29% | $11.41 | 0.71% | -67% | -8.37% | BITW | -41% | $10.42 | 0.19% | -73% | -14% | ETHE | -25% | $9.12 | 0.55% | -72% | -14% | QBTC | -7.84% | $19.13 | 1.81% | -69% | -10% | BTCC | -0.23% | $3.66 | 1.67% | -58% | 0.77% |
All prices as of October 3, 2022 7:01 AM |
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Symbol | Market Cap | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to date | Relative to BTC YTD |
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PYPL | $216B | $87.07 | 1.16% | -54% | 4.49% | SQ | $76B | $55.66 | 1.22% | -66% | -7.22% | COIN | $65B | $65.91 | 2.20% | -74% | -16% | SBNY | $18B | $155 | 2.54% | -52% | 6.18% | HOOD | $15B | $9.98 | -1.19% | -44% | 15% | MSTR | $6.1B | $223 | 5.17% | -59% | -0.69% | SI | $4.2B | $76.05 | 0.93% | -49% | 9.63% | MARA | $3.5B | $10.93 | 2.05% | -67% | -8.42% | RIOT | $2.7B | $7.11 | 1.43% | -68% | -9.84% | MOGO | $223M | $0.9151 | -0.53% | -73% | -15% |
All prices as of October 3, 2022 1:51 PM |
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| | | Tether's CTO shared the update in a Tweet on Monday, adding that its commercial paper holdings are now below $50 million. The post U.S. Treasury bills now make up more than half of Tether’s reserves appeared first on The B... |
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| | | Grayscale Securities, a new broker-deal division, will handle selling shares of the company’s crypto trust products, taking over a function previously provided by fellow Digital Currency Group subsidiary Genesis Global Trading. |
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| | | The exchange has identified the problem and is working to address the issue. |
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| | | The layoffs come nearly two months after Indian authorities began investigating WazirX for alleged money laundering. The post Indian crypto exchange WazirX confirms layoffs: CoinDesk appeared first on The Block. |
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| | | Increased crypto regulation could drive users to decentralized platforms, the bank said. |
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| | | New CEO Jared Grey said he plans to work out the kinks associated with Sushiswap’s internal structure that may have prompted departures in the past. |
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| | | Binance and Kazakhstan have formalized their shared interest in developing and regulating the national cryptoasset market. The post Binance signs agreement with Kazakhstan and plans regional hub appeared first on The Block... |
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| | | Celebrity failed to disclose payment for EthereumMax post on Instagram |
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| | | Blowfish is a firewall technology startup that’s includes engineers from Meta, MakerDAO and other platforms. Web3 wallet security provider Blowfish has raised $11.8 million from several venture funds and other top crypto investors. Paradigm led the ... |
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| | | Arthur Cheong's DeFiance Capital plans to raise a $100 million fund to invest in liquid tokens, sources tell The Block. The post Arthur Cheong’s DeFiance Capital raising $100 million to invest in liquid tokens appeared fir... |
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| | | An SEC filing reveals NYDIG’s intent to raise $720 million while a recent press release shows the company’s commitment to HODLing. |
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| | | The largest decentralized exchange (dex) platform by global trade volume, Uniswap, is looking to raise between $100 and $200 million, according to a report citing people familiar with the company. The funding round is currently in a nascent stage as ... |
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| | | Juno has launched a native token for its tokenized loyalty program and is airdropping the token to existing users today. The post Crypto checking account provider Juno raises $18 million and launches token appeared first o... |
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| | | Web3 firewall provider Blowfish emerges from stealth with $11.8 million in funding and a partnership with Solana wallet Phantom. The post Paradigm leads crypto firewall provider Blowfish’s $11.8 million raise appeared fir... |
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| | | Bitcoin investment company NYDIG has promoted executives Tejas Shah and Nate Conrad to be its new CEO and president respectively. |
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| | | Despite some Ethereum users' anger that Flashbots is censoring transactions, its usage only continues to grow. The post Flashbots now accounts for 39% of Ethereum blocks as censorship concerns rise appeared first on The Bl... |
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HACKS, EXPLOITS, AND SCAMS | |
| | | Before freezing user accounts and filing for bankruptcy, new reports indicate that the former Celsius CEO withdrew $10 million from the firm. |
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| | | After raking in roughly $23 million via an attack on Transit Swap, the attacker has reportedly returned roughly 70% of the money. |
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| | | The objection is seeking a deferral on Celsius motions until the independent examiner report on the company is filed over the next couple of months. |
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