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| Daily Updates from Fundstrat | May 13, 2022 |
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- Yesterday, bitcoin fell to $25,400 at its low but has since rallied 20% to $30,600. Bitcoin's realized price, which is the average value of coins when they were last moved, stands at about $24,000. Historically, realized price has represented great buying opportunities during times of capitulation. ETH has shown similar price action. After falling to $1,700 yesterday, ETH has rallied 25% to just over $2,100. Smart contract platforms have also followed suit and are up anywhere between 20-40%. While the sell-off has been mainly spot-driven, funding ratings on BTC perpetual futures contracts have moved negative, indicating traders are betting on further downside risk. One last BTC metric, entity-adjusted SOPR (the P&L of coins purchased vs. their previous move), has fallen to 0.84 - the lowest level since March 18, 2020, during the COVID-induced risk-off period.
- The Terra blockchain has been paused following a 6.4 trillion coin increase in the supply of Luna. The supply increase is the mechanism by which the algorithmic stablecoin UST would reestablish its peg to USD. However, given the magnitude of the de-pegging, the massive rise in Luna supply has driven its price to near zero. As the dust settles, comments and stories from industry leaders are trickling out. The Block reported that crypto lender Celsius made substantial deposits to Terra's Anchor Protocol starting in December 2021 and was forced to pull half a billion dollars from the network this week. Luna proponent Su Zhu of Three Arrows Capital has commented on the situation, saying, "This has been an incredibly humbling week and [it's] difficult to find the right words." Zhu also alluded to the fact that while critics flagged many risks, they were largely ignored.
- In other news, Germany's Federal Ministry of Finance has published tax guidance for crypto investments, which many are viewing as highly favorable for the industry. The guidance indicates that crypto sold after a year of purchasing will be tax-free. The guidance also provides tax treatment for airdrops, paying employees in crypto, and full-node operators, amongst other crypto-related situations.
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| Daily Technical Strategy - Mark Newton, CMT | | In the last 24 hours we've seen some minor stabilization across the Cryptocurrency space following a very steep decline to test last Summer's lows. Basic Attention Token (BATUSD) fell briefly under prior lows at .424 established last June and has now begun to try to climb back above this level. While momentum and trends remain quite bearish, any close back over .424 would be meaningful towards thinking a short-term bounce is underway, which should carry BAT up to .586-.60, an upside resistance level that looks very strong, coinciding with February '22 lows along with its one-month downtrend. The ability to climb over .60 would be the first meaningful technical development which would allow for a larger rally to get underway. Momentum indicators like RSI have dropped to oversold levels near January lows, but the first test should be the ability to climb back over .424 in the days ahead. Conversely, any pullback back down under .35 on a close keeps the rally attempts on hold, postponing the rally. | |
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| Daily Important Metrics | | Sentiment 
Crypto Size Bullish Signal Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market Cap $1.32T +$103B (+8.49%) BTC Dominance 44.26% (-0.77%) | Stable Coins Bearish Signal Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation $79B (-4.03%) In Exchanges $8.5B (+22%) | Stablecoin Supply Ratio Bearish Signal Ratio between Bitcoin supply and the supply of stablecoins, denominated in BTC SSR 3.53 (1.49%) SSR Oscillator -1.43 (-2.80%) | Funding Rate Bearish Signal Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Bitmex -0.0197% (-1,333%) Binance -0.0106% (-7.47%) |
| BTC Metrics Bullish Signal A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC in Exchanges 2.5M (-0.30%) | Futures CME Bearish Signal A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish BTC Price $30,570 (9.10%) Spot Basis $-79.88 (-0.26%) Volume 17,082 (-20%) Open Interest 11,971 (1.40%)
| Options CME No Signal Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 636 (204%) Open Interest 2,764 (25%) Calls CME Bullish Signal Calls Volume 577 (1,961%) Calls Open Interest 1,107 (93%) Puts CME Bearish Signal Puts Volume CME 59.00 (-54%) Puts Open Interest 1,657 (0.85%) |
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| | All metrics as of May 13, 2022 8:31 AM |
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| Symbol | Market Cap | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
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| BTC | $584B | $30,650 | 9.61% | -35% | | | ETH | $255B | $2,114 | 10% | -43% | -8.74% | | ADA | $20B | $0.5800 | 29% | -56% | -22% | | SOL | $18B | $53.18 | 23% | -69% | -35% | | DOGE | $12B | $0.0927 | 21% | -46% | -11% | | DOT | $11B | $11.20 | 39% | -59% | -24% | | MATIC | $5.7B | $0.7204 | 30% | -71% | -37% | | LINK | $3.5B | $7.50 | 21% | -62% | -28% | | HNT | $1.3B | $11.31 | 39% | -70% | -35% | | FTM | $1.0B | $0.3942 | 54% | -82% | -48% | | Our Deep Research Projects | | AVAX | $9.7B | $35.97 | 29% | -67% | -33% | | BSV | $1.0B | $54.23 | 16% | -55% | -21% | | IOTA | $959M | $0.3450 | 24% | -75% | -40% | | ZIL | $700M | $0.0548 | 24% | -28% | 6.64% | | AMP | $587M | $0.0139 | 34% | -71% | -37% | | ZEN | $276M | $22.32 | 30% | -64% | -29% | | VGX | $231M | $0.8298 | 32% | -72% | -38% |
All prices as of May 13, 2022 8:30 AM |
| Exchanged Traded Products (ETPs) | |
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| Symbol | Premium to Nav | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to Date | Relative to BTC YTD |
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| GBTC | -32% | $18.31 | -4.09% | -47% | -12% | | BITW | -26% | $15.89 | -9.10% | -58% | -24% | | ETHE | -35% | $12.72 | -12% | -61% | -26% | | QBTC | -2.44% | $30.58 | -2.55% | -50% | -15% | | BTCC | -0.29% | $5.34 | -2.38% | -38% | -3.50% |
All prices as of May 13, 2022 8:04 AM |
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| Symbol | Market Cap | Last Price | Daily Change | Year to date | Relative to BTC YTD |
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| PYPL | $216B | $74.29 | -1.17% | -61% | -26% | | SQ | $76B | $75.76 | 6.37% | -53% | -19% | | COIN | $65B | $53.72 | -26% | -79% | -44% | | SBNY | $18B | $189 | -2.74% | -42% | -6.96% | | HOOD | $15B | $8.56 | 5.03% | -52% | -17% | | MSTR | $6.1B | $171 | 1.77% | -69% | -34% | | SI | $4.2B | $63.70 | -11% | -57% | -22% | | MARA | $3.5B | $11.80 | -21% | -64% | -30% | | RIOT | $2.7B | $6.84 | -9.16% | -69% | -35% | | VOYG.TO | $1.5B | $3.02 | -4.43% | -81% | -46% | | VYGVF | $1.2B | $9.39 | 0.97% | -25% | 9.80% | | MOGO | $223M | $1.04 | -24% | -70% | -35% |
All prices as of May 13, 2022 8:01 AM |
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| | | | Luna's supply increased by nearly 17,000 times in just three days as its mechanism led to a vicious cycle of higher supply and lower prices. The post Luna supply soared to 6.5 trillion coins before Terra’s latest halt appe... |
| | | The Japanese investment bank began trading cryptocurrency derivative contracts this week, joining rivals including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan in giving clients a way to access the crypto market. |
| | | Crypto lending business Celsius had at least half a billion dollars of funds parked in Anchor Protocol but appears to have pulled all of it out earlier this week. The post Celsius pulled half a billion dollars out of Anch... |
| | | The FTX founder on hype, the problem with bitcoin and how crypto can build a fairer financial system |
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| | | | Emirates is embracing new technologies such as the metaverse and NFTs to expand its reach, according to chief operating officer Adel Ahmed Al-Redha. |
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| | | | Three Arrows Capital co-founder Su Zhu, who was a prominent Luna supporter, has weighed in following its sudden collapse. The post Luna backer Su Zhu says UST collapse is ‘Terra’s DAO hack moment’ appeared first on The B... |
| | | The CEO of Binance explained why he and his team were disappointed by Terra’s actions following the recent project meltdown. |
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| | | | Cryptocurrencies can be sold tax free after one year of possession even if they're used for staking. |
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| | | | The proposal to ban Bitcoin mining in Norway was rejected in a vote by the Norwegian Parliament on May 10. |
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| | | | Luna is being delisted from exchanges after the fiat crypto hyperinflated on half a trillion trading volumes. |
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