Solana

$SOL

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It's a new day, but the script is pretty much a repeat of the last several weeks, characterized by rising interest rates, particularly at the long end of the curve. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is inching toward 4.8%, while the 30-Year yield is nearing 5%, spurred by higher-than-expected JOLTS figures released this morning. Alongside this, the DXY is gaining, gold prices are declining, and equities are in the red...

ETHTFS COMING TO A BROKERAGE ACCOUNT NEAR YOU Thursday marked a broad-based rebound in equities and crypto, with a modest bounce in the bond market tagging along. This crypto rally received an extra push from some noteworthy developments. Our flash insight on Thursday morning highlighted Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas' commentary, suggesting a high likelihood that the SEC would greenlight ETH futures ETFs this week due to the imminent government shutdown, which...

U.S Equities are bouncing after a three-day losing streak, but both the S&P (-2.2%) and Nasdaq (-2.5%) are set to close down for the week. The 2-year and 10-year treasury have reversed 0.87% and 1.38% respectively, after reaching 15 year highs this week. To counter the higher for longer environment, concerns are rising around a likely U.S government shutdown, which could hurt consumers and the economy. While detrimental to economic...

RATES SURGE ON HIGHER FOR LONGER As expected, Fed Chair Powell took to the podium yesterday and kept interest rates unchanged. Concurrently, he unveiled the Fed’s new dot plot, which forecasts one more rate hike for this year but two fewer cuts for the next year. This was perceived as more hawkish than anticipated by both traditional and crypto markets. The dot plot and Powell's rhetoric collectively signal a 'higher...

Markets are rising following strong August retail sales and core PPI data in line with expectations. August retail sales jumped 0.6% MoM compared to 0.1% estimates. The producer price index increased 0.7% MoM, higher than the 0.4% expected, but core PPI (excludes food and energy) was in line with estimates at 0.2%. Given the Fed’s focus on core when deciding on future rate hikes and U.S consumer resilience, markets may...

TACTICAL CAUTION Throughout this year, we've been navigating a complex interplay between overarching macro influences and crypto-specific events. Milestones such as BlackRock's ETF application, Ripple's legal win over the SEC, and Grayscale's similar success have been promising, yet they've occurred amidst a peak in global liquidity. This timing has effectively curtailed any long-lasting bullish momentum in the crypto markets. While we've been vocal proponents of maintaining risk exposure, the convergence...

$BTC continues to slide after trending lower over the weekend, reaching levels not seen since mid-June at $25.1k. Notably, the daily time frame is nearing a bearish “death cross,” which occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses under the longer-term 200-day SMA. While not a surefire predictor of an impending bear market, it indicates a clear shift in trend, with investors showing caution in a seasonally bearish period....

THE US DOLLAR WRECKING BALL CONTINUES Last week, our near-term outlook remained uncertain, though we leaned toward the possibility that a positive catalyst, such as a victory for Grayscale, could coincide with easing liquidity conditions. This would mark a significant departure from the tightening conditions—indicated by the DXY—that followed the last two crypto-specific catalysts this year. The likelihood of interest rates reaching a peak, the dollar beginning to decline, and...

Equities show mixed performance as oil prices continue their upward trajectory, potentially raising concerns over an inflationary burst. Interest rates are increasing across the board, with a more noticeable spike at the short end of the yield curve. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise, a near-term risk that has been a concern. Regarding macro updates, the next critical data to watch will be the U.S. Services PMI data...

Today's video discusses implications of Grayscale's landmark victory, the outlook for a Bitcoin spot ETF, DeFi sector regulation, and three major risks that could create tactical headwinds despite all the postitive catalysts. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here. https://vimeo. com/859942814/328e8c2424? share=copy Tickers in this report: $BTC, $OP, $ETH, $RPL, $ARB, $SOL, $UNI

GRAYSCALE VICTORY As recently discussed, we’ve been awaiting either short-term relief in liquidity conditions—indicated by falling interest rates, a declining DXY, and increasing central bank liquidity—or the realization of crypto-specific catalysts for better price action. This week, we received encouraging news on both fronts. The courts have ruled that the SEC acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner when denying the spot Bitcoin ETF. _Source: Court Decision in Grayscale v...