Following up on last night's discussion of Energy, reports are citing Israel saying that it won't target Iran's Oil facilities, which is resulting in C N/A% rude falling 5%. While oversold on an hourly basis, this drop is damaging technically as it's brought Crude down to the lowest levels since early October. The decline which began last week on 10/7 should kick off a decline down to 50 in WTI or lower, and Energy remains an underweight. Any oversold bounce to 73-74 would face solid resistance before a decline to test and break early October lows near 66 en-route to the 50's. I expect XLE -0.73%  to begin to fall back down to test September lows near $83.

Lot of investors wondering if C N/A% rude is bottoming, and i do NOT feel this is the case technically, though i can make the case for another 2-4 days of gains back up to 73.45-74.50 before this peaks and goes back to the lows. Structurally this remains bearish, Elliott patterns suggest a good likelihood of $50 oil, DeMark exhaustion is not in place and cycles remain bearish until Summer 2025. Thus, while a short-term bounce is certainly underway for Energy as a sector as Geopolitical risk has elevated, i don't suspect this will prove long-lasting. Technically speaking, bounces would be used to Trim/take profits/hedge Energy as of early next week. (CL 0.86% _F) OIH -1.56%  XLE -0.73%