ARB Protocol

$ARB

The SEC caused a stir yesterday when it erroneously tweeted about approving a Bitcoin ETF post-market close, which was quickly rectified by SEC Chair Gensler, who stated that it had not been approved and the SEC's Twitter account had been hacked. Many thought the tweet was a premature official announcement, but it was confirmed as a security breach. Despite this incident potentially tarnishing the SEC's reputation, it's unlikely to affect...

QUICK RECAP First and foremost, we would like to extend a Happy New Year to all our clients and subscribers. The past year was indeed eventful, marked by banking crises, significant court victories, and BlackRock's foray into the sector – truly a remarkable journey. Our Core Strategy, though it lagged behind the King, performed well. This was particularly supported by the strong performance of our altcoin basket in Q4. We...

U.S. equity indices are continuing their slide to start 2024, with the SPY dropping -0.65% and the QQQ falling -0.86%, while the DXY (+1.24%) has pushed up to $102.6. Crypto assets are experiencing significant volatility as $BTC (-4.65%) briefly dropped more than 9% to the mid-$40,000s amid fears of the SEC rejecting spot bitcoin ETF applications. Despite most altcoins suffering large losses on the day, $ARB is showing strength, rising...

The crypto market commenced 2024 on a high note. $BTC spearheaded the rally, climbing from just above $42k to nearly $46k, setting a new peak in the ongoing bull market. Despite a slight retracement, Bitcoin's price remains over $45k. $ETH, while not matching Bitcoin's pace, has still made considerable bullish strides, now trading around $2,350 after briefly nearing $2,400. ETH's Layer 2 solution, $ARB, is undergoing consolidation following its ascent...

Risk assets received another shot in the arm today, with core PCE data registering at just 0.06%, well below the 0.20% consensus estimate. This has led to a continuation of the downward trend in the DXY. Both the SPX and QQQ are up on the day, and gold is edging closer to new YTD highs. In crypto markets, there's been a significant rotation into ETH L2s this morning, especially $OP...

LET IT FLOW As we approach the holiday weekend and the final week of the year, which is typically marked by lower liquidity due to many stepping away from their desks, one might expect to see a dialing back of risk and a slowdown in trading volumes. However, contrary to these expectations, most data suggest animal spirits seem poised for a rally through the New Year. CME futures data, the...

OI RINSE TO START THE WEEK This week the crypto market started off with a bang, marked by a liquidations-driven downturn on Sunday evening. The perpetual futures market witnessed a low liquidity liquidation cascade that wiped out approximately $2.7 billion in open interest across all cryptoassets, according to data from CoinGlass. At the time, we perceived this event as a normal cleansing of overleveraged weekend positions and viewed any immediate...

CHALLENGING THE ACCUSATIONS OF FROTH Amidst the recent sharp rally in the crypto market, investors who weathered the prolonged bear market are understandably cautious, keeping a close watch for any signs of excess. Despite the violence in the most recent rally, we believe it's too early to declare the market as overbought. Our assessment is based on several factors:Perpetual futures data indicates a relatively modest level of long speculation, especially...

Equities are attempting to break a three-day losing streak, with the S&P rising 0.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.5% ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 190k additional jobs added in November, an increase from the prior month. Investors are eagerly awaiting indications that the labor market is settling down, which could reassure the Federal Reserve to stop increasing interest rates. $BTC is beginning to show...

RATES DUE FOR A BOUNCE (MAYBE) As the crypto market continues to exhibit strength, and despite eradicating one of the market’s biggest unknowns in Binance just last week, it remains essential to be aware of near-term risks. Recently, the bond market has experienced a significant rally, and there's been a notable decline in the DXY. Combined with nominal stimulus in Asia, these factors have contributed to a substantial increase in...

BINANCE RISK MITIGATED One of the most significant idiosyncratic risks in the crypto market has been the uncertainty surrounding Binance and potential action from the Justice Department against the world's leading exchange. Earlier this year, we anticipated that any disciplinary actions would likely involve criminal charges against Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and a fine against the exchange. From our September note: _Source: Fundstrat_ Today, these views were realized. CZ appeared in...