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2020 November Outlook

ETF Driven Strategy

Brian Rauscher

Head of Global Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation

Brian Rauscher

Brian Rauscher is a Managing Director and Head of Global Portfolio Strategy and Asset Allocation at FSInsight. He joined Robert W. Baird & Co. as Chief Portfolio Strategist in 2012 after 15 years on Wall Street. He has also worked on the buy side as the U.S. Equity Strategist at Fortress Investment Group on the Liquid Macro Fund. From 2004-2009, Rauscher was at Brown Brothers Harriman as the Director of Portfolio Strategy and Director of Research. Prior to that, he worked for five years as an investment strategist on the team of Wall Street legend Byron Wien, at Morgan Stanley.

November Outlook

After a challenging September, October started off promising with the hopes that an agreement on a new fiscal stimulus would get passed. Indeed, the S&P 500 rallied nearly 5% to its October 12th peak near 3550 only to get disappointed by the lack of and agreement. The back half of October was hit by a negative trifecta of no stimulus deal, rising COVID cases and the return of lockdowns in Europe, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Presidential election.

The weak performance during the closing week of October has given hope to the multitude of bearish forecasters who continue to be concerned about the U.S. equity market rise off its March low. They continue to make the case that the magnitude of the rally has not made sense, and many reasons to be worried and defensively positioned. Our research continues to point to a much different favorable outcome for the S&P 500, and thus we are more constructive.

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