2020 October Outlook
ETF Driven Strategy
Brian Rauscher
Head of Global Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation
Brian Rauscher is a Managing Director and Head of Global Portfolio Strategy and Asset Allocation at FSInsight. He joined Robert W. Baird & Co. as Chief Portfolio Strategist in 2012 after 15 years on Wall Street. He has also worked on the buy side as the U.S. Equity Strategist at Fortress Investment Group on the Liquid Macro Fund. From 2004-2009, Rauscher was at Brown Brothers Harriman as the Director of Portfolio Strategy and Director of Research. Prior to that, he worked for five years as an investment strategist on the team of Wall Street legend Byron Wien, at Morgan Stanley.
October Outlook
September has not been friendly to equity investors as it has posted the first decline of greater than 10% since the important March 23 trough near S&P 2200. That level was not only the nadir for 2020 but was also the lowest point for equities dating back to 4Q16. Although it was the first double-digit drawdown over the last six months, it was the fourth decline greater than 5%. These were all dips and buy opportunities within the context of an ongoing recovery rally.
Many bearish forecasters have once again become quite vocal about all the reasons why the magnitude of the rally has not made sense, why the current pullback was so obvious, and why the investing backdrop has clearly had a negative shift. From our perspective, we disagree with these somber views.
September has not been friendly to equity investors as it has posted the first decline of greater than 10% since the important March 23 trough near S&P 2200. That level was not only the nadir for 2020 but was also the lowest point for equities dating back to 4Q16. Although it was the first double-digit drawdown over the last six months, it was the fourth decline greater than 5%. These were all dips and buy opportunities within the context of an ongoing recovery rally.
Many bearish forecasters have once again become quite vocal about all the reasons why the magnitude of the rally has not made sense, why the current pullback was so obvious, and why the investing backdrop has clearly had a negative shift. From our perspective, we disagree with these somber views.
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