BTC recaptures its 50-dma – ALTs beginning to move to the upside
Cryptocurrencies have consolidated through April similar to other risk assets -Major cryptocurrencies stalled over the past two weeks following rebounds into resistance levels near declining 50-dma’s. This behavior is similar to what developed in many risk assets, notably equities where cyclical indices, such as the Russell 2000, have stalled in sideways trading ranges heading into last week’s option expiration.
However, signs of improvement for BTC taking hold – BTC, for example peaked under its 50-dma on April 7th and has been in a sideways range since. However, over the past few days, BTC has recaptured both its 15-dma and 50-dma and appears poised to rally. A move above resistance at the April highs between 7.1-7.4K would signal BTC is starting its next upside move. Next resistance is near 8K at BTC’s declining 200-dma coinciding with BTC’s 62% retracement of the 2020 decline. Stepping back for perspective of the long-term, BTC continues to repair the damage that developed from the downside break in March and remains above key support at its 200-week sma coinciding with a curved long-term uptrend.
ETH leading BTC as it rallies to higher highs in April with ETHBTC’s uptrend intact ETH, in contrast to BTC, did rally above its early April highs and is challenging its next key retracement levels at 50% at 188 with next resistance at the 62% retracement at 212. More importantly on a relative performance to BTC, ETH continues to show evidence of being in a longer-term relative uptrend. Continue to overweight ETH vs BTC.
XLM breaks-out short-term – XLM is featured in today’s note to illustrate that a few more Alts are accelerating above their early April highs similar ETH. XLM has also rallied above its early April highs with relative performance versus BTC trending to the upside supporting overweighting XLM vs BTC.
FS CryptoFX indice highlights – The FS CryptoFX advance-decline lines remain range bound but a move above the February highs is needed to signal a longer-term trend reversal notably for the FX10 large-cap and FX. Lastly, relative performance for the FX40 mid-cap index versus the FX10 large-cap index continues to trend to the upside supporting overweighting mid-caps.
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