Trump-Xi Meeting: Deal or No Deal
Policy-wise, all eyes will be on the meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting in Japan. While earlier last week Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the proposed agreement was 90% complete, similar reports have come out previously that were then followed by President Trump walking away and threatening higher tariffs. So let’s not get too excited, folks.
Trump continues to believe that his unpredictability is a great negotiating tool, but there appears to be a consensus that the two leaders will announce a standstill on the escalating trade war similar to the agreement they reached at the G20 a year ago in Argentina.
The path to a Trump electoral victory next year goes through farm country, and farmers in key states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were central to his close win in both states. They have been hard hit by Trump’s tariffs, so any agreement with China would be a positive for American agriculture.
On the other hand, China has been hurt with the tough sanctions the Trump Administration has imposed on Huawei Technologies. A partial agreement on the tech giant could become a stumbling block as President Xi may have a hard time selling any agreement with the US to hardliners back in Beijing if nothing happens with respect to Huawei. Obviously, Monday’s open could be significantly impacted by the US/China talks over the weekend.
This week saw the first debate between 20 of the 24 announced Democratic Presidential candidates. We are still 220 days until the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucus on February 3, 2020 and arguably there really is no distinction between front runner and also ran until the people start to vote.
However, the early reaction appears definitely to have created a two-tier ranking of the candidates. At the top, I believe there is a race within the race between Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for the candidate who will carry the party’s progressive wing mantle. While Sanders is clearly the symbol for the movement, Warren is relatively younger and shows a higher level of energy, and she appears to be gaining some momentum in this two-way competition.
Speaking of age, former Vice President Biden appeared to show his Thursday during the debate. Senator Kamela Harris gained points by confronting him on his position against school busing in the 1970s. It is interesting to note that he was the only person on the stage who was involved in national politics when busing was debated. The moment not only was dramatic, but I believe it also points out how long Senator Biden has been active in Washington, D.C., having been elected to the Senate in 1972.
The next two nights of Democratic debates will be held on July 30 and 31. It is hard for any of these candidates to walk away from the limelight of the debates before any votes are cast. Perhaps some of the more marginal candidates with less than 1% in the polls will fail to get financial support and consider dropping out.
One can only hope. Of course, never get between a candidate and a TV camera.
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